It comes after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard issued a warning on February 28 to every vessel in the Strait of Hormuz: the waterway was closing, and any ship attempting to pass would be set “ablaze.” By the following morning, traffic was down 80%…with the strait closed to all vessels on Monday.

As it stands, 170 containerships carrying 450,000 TEU, 1.4% of the global container fleet, are stranded inside the strait with no clear path out, according to Linerlytica co-founder Hua Joo Tan.

All four of the world’s largest container shipping operators have suspended operations. Maersk has formally invoked Clause 20 of its Bill of Lading — a force majeure provision — implementing an Emergency Freight Increase across all cargo to and from the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman.

The current crisis is structurally different from anything the world has faced before. When Houthi attacks forced vessels off the Suez route in 2024, the Cape of Good Hope was painful but passable. However, a Hormuz closure removes the destination, leaving no available detour.

What is at stake in the Gulf

The MENA region has, in recent years, become one of the most important and consequential growth markets for timber exporters. Last year, Wood Central reported that Russia shipped 1.7 million cubic metres of lumber there in 2024, whilst the American Hardwood Export Council has successfully grown trade in the United Arab Emirates (up 27%), Saudi Arabia (up 8%) and Egypt (up 15%) on the back of major projects in the region.

However, that pipeline is now stalled at the port gate.

“The Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters are the most dangerous place right now for commercial shipping,” according to Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s Chief Safety and Security Officer, who spoke to Fox News on Sunday. “Ships in the Persian Gulf are under threat from Iranian attacks — they’re trying to depart to get away from the threat zone.”

It is a pattern that timber exporters have felt before.

During last June’s 12-day Israel-Iran war, Mike Cardin, of Tennessee-based Cardin Forest Products, was one of scores of traders who had rerouted Gulf-bound hardwood shipments. “If it keeps escalating, there won’t be any orders coming in for the next, who knows how long,” he told Fox Business at the time. Whilst his brother Jarrod was more blunt: “Right now, no one knows what’s going to happen. It’s shut down that export market pretty much. It’s a little painful — we’re stuck with warehouses full.”

That conflict passed within two weeks…but this one could drag on much longer.

Finland, Russia, and the wider exposure

The current disruption reaches beyond Gulf-facing exporters. “Approximately 20% of the forest industry’s exports go to Asia, and the majority of those shipments pass through the Suez Canal,” said Maarit Lindström, Director and Chief Economist at the Finnish Forest Industries Federation. If vessels are forced to reroute around southern Africa, journeys extend by thousands of kilometres — delays of several weeks are possible.

“If the situation continues, it will affect freight prices and competition for containers,” Lindström warned. Of Finland’s Asian exports, roughly half is pulp, with wood products accounting for 26%, cartonboard 15%, and paper 8% — all product lines now facing extended transit times and tightening container availability. Finland exports approximately €3 million worth of forest products to Qatar alone each year.

Until last week, freight markets were recovering after two years of major instability in the region. A Red Sea return in late 2026 had been one of the few tailwinds analysts were counting on — lower rates, shorter transit times, freed-up capacity. “The repercussions of the joint military operation will see the further weaponisation of trade and shatter hopes of a large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta.

And there is a second cost that the mainstream has largely missed. QatarEnergy halted production following attacks on its facilities, sending gas prices up 50% in two days. With the Strait carrying 22% of global LNG, Asian based sawmills running on gas could face an energy cost spike on top of the freight hit.

Using satellite observations and next‑generation climate models, the researchers resolved long‑standing uncertainty around how much rainfall forests actually produce. They then applied a simplified economic valuation to estimate the rain’s value to society. Their conclusion: the financial value of forest‑driven rainfall dwarfs current incentives to protect or restore tropical forests.

“This is the most comprehensive and robust evidence to date of the value of tropical forests’ rainfall provision,” said lead author Dr Jess Baker of the University of Leeds. “Tropical deforestation is increasing, despite international efforts to halt forest loss. Our work highlights the vital role of tropical forests in producing rain. We estimate that the Amazon alone produces rainfall worth US$20 billion each year. Demonstrating the financial benefits that tropical forests provide will unlock investment and strengthen arguments for forest protection.”

The study shows that many major crops rely on more forest‑generated moisture than the land they occupy. Cotton requires 607 litres of moisture per square metre — equal to the rainfall produced by two square metres of intact forest. Soybeans need 501 litres, which is equivalent to 1.7 square metres of forest.

Decades of forest loss have already imposed steep costs. The researchers estimate that deforestation across roughly 80 million hectares of the Amazon may have reduced rainfall‑generation benefits by nearly US$5 billion annually, with cascading impacts on food production, hydropower, water security and even the carbon‑storage capacity of remaining forests.

Brazil is particularly exposed. With 85 per cent of its agriculture rain‑fed, reduced rainfall and delayed wet seasons have already hit soy and maize yields in heavily deforested regions.

According to Dr Callum Smith, a co-author on the study, the findings highlight a missing piece in global policy debates. “Tropical forests make it rain, supplying water that is essential for agriculture. Recognising that crucial connection could ease tensions between agricultural and conservation interests while building broader support for protecting forests overall.”

For more information: Quantifying tropical forest rainfall generation, Communications Earth & Environment (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-03159-3, Journal information: Communications Earth & Environment.

The push to diversify comes as U.S. duties and tariffs continue to weigh on British Columbia’s forest sector, with the industry now racing find new markets as mills close, and prices fall. St. John, who has just returned from trade missions in Japan, China and South Korea, said the industry is moving quickly but also warned that entering new regions is rarely straightforward.

“We’re in a bit of a crisis right now, so we want to get everything done very, very quickly,” he said. “You go into new markets, and there are a lot of barriers that are in place. For a start, do they have wood construction codes and standards? And if the country doesn’t have that, we’re starting from the very grass roots.”

And while India has drawn considerable attention since Premier David Eby’s trip last month, St. John cautioned that the country’s promise won’t translate into immediate results. Shipping from B.C. to India can take up to three times longer than shipping to Japan, termite exposure requires specialised building systems and treatments, and strict import rules limit the types of wood products that can enter the market.

“We see the real opportunity there is for the furniture sector, for domestic consumption or export,” St. John said, noting that India’s young population is driving demand for new styles and materials. “[India has] got a history of using wood, and what’s happened is their domestic species have been reduced. They are looking for new products.”

And China remains a major focus too, though its strategy is shifting. With residential real estate slowing and concrete still the dominant material for housing, Canada Wood is concentrating on non‑residential projects such as resorts, convention centres and public buildings.

 “One of the real benefits of wood construction is the environmental perspective of it,” he said. “Forty per cent of China’s carbon emissions come from construction. So when they’re looking at how we can reduce our carbon emissions, low‑hanging fruit is wood construction.”

Rainy seasons in the Benin drylands are becoming shorter and less predictable. Pastures dry out earlier than they used to. Heatwaves are more frequent.

When cows eat less because the grasslands have dried out and when they can’t cool down in the heat, milk production falls. Diseases like mastitis, tick-borne diseases, trypanosomiasis and gastro-intestinal parasitic infections increase. All of these are made worse by the cows’ weakened immunity and poor body condition.

For households that rely heavily on livestock, these changes can quickly translate into food insecurity and income loss.

I research climate-smart livestock systems and agroforestry (growing crops, livestock and trees together).

I was part of a team who monitored 447 dairy cows on 40 smallholder farms in northern Benin’s drylands to see how the cattle fared under climate stress living on traditional farms versus agroforestry systems (growing crops and trees together). In the traditional systems, cattle were raised to graze openly in natural pastures, with very limited on-farm tree cover. Although herders traditionally supplemented cattle diets with tree leaves they collected during the dry season, trees were generally scattered throughout the landscape and not included in the animals’ grazing area.

The agroforestry farms were existing smallholder systems where farmers had intentionally integrated trees with crops and livestock over several years.

This comparison allowed us to assess how long-standing agroforestry practices influence cattle health, milk production and resilience under increasing climate stress. In our recent paper, we set out our findings into how the different ways of farming influenced the amount of milk the cows produced and their success in breeding.

Our study found that silvopastoral farming (where livestock graze under trees) and agrosilvopastoral systems (where trees, crops and livestock are managed together on the same land) are helping farmers adapt to changes in the climate. The trees provide cattle feed, shade and healthier landscapes when grass and water are scarce.

We found that cows raised in tree-based farming systems produced up to nearly three times more milk per day than those kept in conventional open grazing systems. Calf survival rates were also higher, suggesting that improved nutrition and reduced stress have long-term effects on herd productivity.

Policymakers and development finance institutions should use our research results to set up ways of encouraging and financing smallholder dryland dairy farmers to include trees and crops on their farms.

Livestock farming under growing climate pressure

Trees have always played an important role in livestock systems in west Africa. Long before climate adaptation became part of development finance agendas, farmers used native trees and shrubs to feed animals during the dry season. Leaves, pods and fruits from species such as the African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis), African rosewood (Pterocarpus erinaceus) and Afzelia africana (another type of African mahogany tree) were commonly eaten by livestock during drought when grasses disappear.

But as land pressure and agriculture expanded, farming livestock under trees became less possible. Today, what was seen as a traditional or informal practice is recognised as a climate-smart response by farmers to global warming.

The farmers who took part in the research shared that trees and livestock are farmed together in various ways. Some pastoralists depend mainly on natural rangelands, where animals eat from trees and shrubs on their own. Other farmers said they developed systems where they planted crops edible by humans with fodder trees and plants for livestock to forage on.

My research found that the cooler microclimates under tree canopies help cool livestock down. Tree leaves provide cows with protein and minerals that are lacking in dried out grasses. This prevents weight loss and keeps livestock in a good condition for breeding.

Including trees on dairy farms enriches the soil (when fallen leaves, or leaf litter, decompose on the ground). The trees enrich livestock manure, which fertilises fields. Some tree species also provide fruits, firewood, timber or medicinal products, giving farming households a more diverse range of resources.

Cattle herders in northern Benin face drought and feed shortages every dry season and agroforestry families coped better. My research found that smallholder farming families had more reliable animal feed, steadier milk production and additional food and income from trees during the dry season than families who grazed their cows in pastures. They were better able to cope with climate shocks and economic uncertainty.

Tree-livestock integration also contributes to climate change mitigation. Trees store carbon in their biomass and soils, helping to offset greenhouse gas emissions from livestock.

Farmers do not describe their farming practices as a way of reducing their carbon footprints, yet their systems align closely with global sustainability goals. What makes these approaches particularly valuable is that they are locally developed and adapted to specific ecological and social contexts.

What needs to happen next

As climate change intensifies, the experience of livestock farmers in Benin’s drylands offers an important lesson. Adaptation does not always come from new technologies or complex interventions. Sometimes, it comes from valuing and strengthening practices that farmers have refined over generations, where trees, animals and people coexist in resilient farming systems.

Despite their potential, tree-livestock systems remain under-recognised in agricultural policy. Livestock development strategies often focus on improved breeds or external feed inputs, overlooking the role of landscapes and ecosystems.

Farmers need specific support to strengthen these systems. They need secure land tenure, access to tree and crop seedlings and for agriculture extension officers from governments to recognise that local knowledge must be built on and not replaced.

• This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Published in Nature, the research delivers the most detailed reconstruction to date, showing how tropical forest carbon between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn has changed over the past 30 years. Scientists at the Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Sciences (LSCE) in France, working with the European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative, found that clearings smaller than two hectares account for 56% of net carbon losses, despite representing just 5% of the total disturbed area.

The team used a high‑resolution bookkeeping approach that combines sub‑hectare satellite observations with new biomass‑recovery curves, enabling carbon losses and gains to be mapped at a 30‑metre scale. Their analysis shows that disturbances in tropical humid forests caused nearly 16 billion tonnes of carbon loss between 1990 and 2020, whilst tropical dry forests showed a rough balance between disturbance‑driven losses and natural regrowth.

According to Yidi Xu and Philippe Ciais, the study’s lead authors, the breakthrough came from the unprecedented detail provided by ESA’s biomass maps. “Unlike previous global models that rely on simplified assumptions or continental averages, our approach captured how disturbance type, size, and local climate conditions shape forest recovery,” they said. “This allowed us to discover that small‑scale human activities, not just large clear‑cutting or wildfires, are quietly driving the majority of tropical carbon losses.”

Most of these clearings are not linked to logging or catastrophic fires.

Instead, they reflect the cumulative impact of everyday human activity, expanding croplands, creating pasture, building roads, and establishing settlements. In humid forests, these disturbances often fail to regrow, locking in long‑term emissions and amplifying the climate impact of each hectare lost.

The study also shows that disturbances are increasingly encroaching on denser, more carbon‑rich humid forests. While undisturbed tropical forests continue to act as a carbon sink, their ability to offset losses elsewhere is now only just enough to keep the overall tropical carbon balance close to neutral.

The findings carry significant implications for climate policy, particularly in regions such as Africa, where small‑scale disturbances dominate. The authors argue that curbing incremental agricultural expansion could deliver far greater climate benefits than previously recognised, and that regenerating forests must be protected from repeated disturbance to maintain their carbon‑storage potential.

ESA’s Head of Actionable Climate Information, Clement Albergel, said the study reinforces the importance of long‑term satellite monitoring. “As tropical forests face increasingly frequent hazards from climate change, fires, and human encroachment, this study underscores a vital truth: even the smallest clearings matter,” he said. “Through ESA’s maps of biomass, we’re gaining an unprecedented view of how these ecosystems lose and regain carbon – knowledge that is crucial for protecting them while there is still time.”

For more information: Xu, Y., Ciais, P., Santoro, M. et al. Small persistent humid forest clearings drive tropical forest biomass losses. Nature 649, 375–380 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09870-7.

The international team, which included researchers from the National Centre for Earth Observation at the Universities of Leicester, Sheffield, and Edinburgh, used satellite and radar data from the European Space Agency (ESA) and thousands of field measurements to track changes in above‑ground biomass over more than a decade. Their analysis shows that Africa’s forests gained carbon between 2007 and 2010, but “extensive losses in tropical rainforest regions have since reversed that trend,” turning the continent into a net carbon source.

Most losses occurred in tropical moist broadleaf forests, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and parts of West Africa. And whilst some savanna regions experienced gains from increased shrub growth, these increases “were not sufficient to counterbalance the overall losses.”

According to Professor Heiko Balzter, a senior author of the study and Director of the Institute for Environmental Futures at the University of Leicester, the results are “a critical wake‑up call for global climate policy. If Africa’s forests are no longer absorbing carbon, it means other regions and the world as a whole will need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more deeply to stay within the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change.”

Balzter also urged governments and financial institutions to scale up support for the newly announced Tropical Forests Forever Facility. He said climate finance “must be scaled up quickly to put an end to global deforestation for good.”

Last year, Balzter and co‑author Dr Nezha Acil presented their findings at the COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil. “Stronger forest governance, enforcement against illegal logging, and large‑scale restoration programs such as AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of African landscapes by 2030, can make a huge difference in reversing the damage done,” according to Dr Acil, who said these measures will be essential in restoring the continent’s forests.

According to Dr Pedro Rodríguez‑Veiga, co-author of the research, the findings carry implications for the voluntary carbon market. “This study provides critical risk data for Sylvera and the wider voluntary carbon market (VCM), and shows that deforestation isn’t just a local or regional issue – it’s changing the global carbon balance,” he said, warning that if Africa’s forests become a lasting carbon source, achieving global climate goals will become increasingly difficult.

For more information: Rodríguez-Veiga, P., Carreiras, J.M.B., Quegan, S. et al. Loss of tropical moist broadleaf forest has turned Africa’s forests from a carbon sink into a source. Sci Rep 15, 41744 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-27462-3

The deal is being delivered through Rubicon Carbon, a US climate‑finance and carbon‑removal firm backed by TPG Rise Climate, with Rubicon working with Microsoft to unlock 18 million tonnes of carbon removals.

Uganda’s carbon market is amongst the most advanced in Africa, with the new regulations establishing the legal basis for approving carbon projects, issuing credits and participating in global markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Kijani Forestry partners with more than 50,000 smallholder farmers across Northern Uganda, helping them regenerate degraded land through community‑based woodlot planting. The programme has already produced more than 30 million trees, with participating farmers projected to increase household incomes by more than 600% per acre.

According to Quinn Neely, Kijani’s co‑founder and CEO, the partnership highlights the impact of long‑term climate finance reaching communities most exposed to climate change. Working with Rubicon Carbon, he said, enables Kijani “to reach more farmers, restore more land, and accelerate climate impact,” and demonstrates “what is possible when multi‑year finance reaches communities on the frontlines of climate change.”

Meanwhile, Phillip Goodman, Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Director, said the company is committed to high‑quality nature‑based removals that deliver both climate and community benefits: “Microsoft is pleased to support Kijani’s work in strengthening farmer livelihoods while restoring ecosystems in Northern Uganda,” with Rubicon’s framework “streamlining the contracting process while ensuring project quality and unlocking financing for nature‑based removals.”

Wood Central understands that Ugandan farmers will begin earning income from future CDR revenue within a year of planting. As the trees mature, they will also gain access to additional revenue streams from sustainable timber and charcoal production — a long‑term economic uplift that Kijani and its partners say is central to the project’s climate and community impact.

• To learn more about Microsoft’s plans for carbon capture, which include taking carbon from pulp and paper mills, click here for Wood Central’s special feature from April 2025.

The research, published by the World Resources Institute (WRI), reveals that fires are now destroying more than twice as much tree cover as they did two decades ago. from the World Resources Institute (WRI) reveals that fires are now destroying more than twice as much tree cover as they did two decades ago. In 2024 alone, 135,000 km² of forest burned — an area larger than England. Yet the surge is concentrated in forests.

According to research from the University of Tasmania’s Fire Centre Research Hub — one of the world’s leading groups on long‑term global fire trends — shows that total global burned area has actually declined for decades as agricultural expansion slowed savanna fires, even as forest fires surged.

The shift is global in scale.

For the first time, major fires burned simultaneously across tropical rainforests, including the Amazon, and boreal forests in Canada and Russia. Russia has lost 623,208 km² of forest to fire since 2001, an area the size of France. Three of its worst seasons have occurred since 2020, with 2021 the most severe, when 45,000 km² burned across Siberia and the Far East. Flames pushed deep into permafrost regions inside the Arctic Circle, with satellites recording the northernmost wildfire ever observed. As permafrost thaws and soils dry, scientists warn of an “abrupt increase” in Arctic fire activity.

Meanwhile, Canada has lost 402,664 km² of forest since 2001 — roughly the size of Norway. Its 2023 season was the most destructive on record, with 78,000 km² burned and smoke drifting across continents. The toxic haze contributed to 82,000 premature deaths worldwide, with Europe absorbing one‑quarter of the mortality. Temperatures in the boreal north climbed 10°C above average, pushing fires into previously unburnt regions and overwhelming firefighting capacity.

Further south, Brazil has lost 129,007 km² of forest to fire since 2001. In 2024, 23,000 km² burned — the Amazon’s second‑worst fire year on record. The states of Pará, Rondônia and Mato Grosso were hit hardest, with flames penetrating Indigenous territories and protected areas. Extreme heat, El Niño‑driven drought and illegal deforestation combined to create explosive fire conditions.

Australia has lost 65,883 km² of forest since 2001 — a figure that does not include the current Victorian fires, which continue to expand. The legacy of the 2019–20 Black Summer remains stark: more than 3,000 homes destroyed, 30 lives lost and an estimated three billion animals killed.

Scientists warn that rising temperatures are changing fire behaviour.

The years 2023 and 2024 were both the hottest on record — and the years with the most forest area burned. Northern latitudes are heating faster than the global average, driving a surge in boreal fires: “Fire is a natural part of these ecosystems, but the traits that once helped them survive infrequent burns are now being overwhelmed as fires grow larger, more frequent, and more severe,” according to James MacCarthy of WRI’s Global Forest Watch, “Fires are increasingly burning in places that were historically too wet to ignite and rarely caught fire, like peat‑rich forests.”

The consequences extend far beyond the firegrounds. Forests normally act as carbon sinks, absorbing CO₂ and slowing global warming. But when they burn, they release centuries of stored carbon back into the atmosphere. In 2023 and 2024, forests absorbed only one‑quarter of the CO₂ they typically store. MacCarthy warns: “When these forests and peatlands burn, they release carbon that has been locked away in trees and soil for hundreds of years, accelerating climate change and setting the stage for more fire.” He noted that smoke from these fires can travel thousands of miles, “polluting the air for millions of people, while nearby communities face evacuations, health risks and mounting costs.”

In South America, Bolivia has lost 31,328 km² of forest to fire since 2001. Last year was its worst season on record, with more than 10,000 km² burned — double the previous high. Yet the Indigenous‑managed territory of Charagua Iyambae largely avoided catastrophe thanks to early‑warning systems, satellite monitoring and rapid‑response fire management. The 12,000 km² Ñembi Guasu protected area — home to jaguars, giant armadillos and tapirs — remained mostly intact. Even so, fire pressure is rising. In September, the territory declared a disaster after flames breached the protected area, only to be extinguished by rain.

Scientists warn that without decisive action, the world risks locking in a cycle of more fires, less carbon absorption and accelerating climate change. As Calum Cunningham of the University of Tasmania said: “Massive forest fire seasons threaten to reshape the atmosphere by releasing huge amounts of CO₂, which could create a feedback loop – more warming, worse fire weather, more fire. That’s the ultimate fear.”

The Government plans a significant expansion of domestic processing capacity for timber, pulp and paper products — a shift aimed at reducing import dependence and building an export‑oriented manufacturing base. Local value addition is expected to rise from about 25 per cent in 2024 to more than 60 per cent by 2030, while domestic production of paper and wood‑based goods is projected to meet at least 80 per cent of national demand.

Wood Central understands that the country’s commercial forestry industry — concentrated primarily in Manicaland — is worth several hundred million dollars annually and supplies both domestic markets and regional exports, underscoring the scale of the opportunity the Government seeks to unlock.

According to the NDS2 framework, Zimbabwe wants to reposition the sector as a driver of industrialisation, job creation and export growth by deepening value addition and strengthening downstream manufacturing.

The government focuses on furniture, paper and wood-based industrial goods.

Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube said the new policy direction marks a decisive shift in how forestry contributes to national development: “During NDS2, the Government will revitalise the timber and paper industry from a primarily raw material exporter to a producer of high-value timber products, including furniture, paper and wood-based industrial goods.”

The strategy succeeds the first National Development Strategy (2021–2025) and aligns with Vision 2030, which aims to transition the country into an upper‑middle‑income economy. It places strong emphasis on value addition, export‑led growth and green industrialisation across agriculture, mining and manufacturing.

To meet its targets, Minister Ncube said the Government will support investment in modern sawmills, pulp and paper mills and downstream wood‑processing industries through affordable financing and public‑private partnerships. He said priority will be given to retooling existing facilities, establishing new timber‑processing clusters and adopting environmentally sustainable production technologies.

Zimbabwe’s timber industry is anchored in Manicaland, home to 70,000 hectares of plantations managed by state‑owned Allied Timbers, Wattle Company, Border Timbers, Mutare Board and Paper Mills, alongside several private operators. Allied Timbers — the most significant player — operates more than 10 estates across Manicaland, the Midlands and Matabeleland.

Minister Ncube said micro, small and medium enterprises will also be integrated into the timber and paper value chains to support inclusive growth. “The Government plans to support furniture manufacturing, woodcraft and other downstream wood-based industries, while common facility centres and shared processing infrastructure will be developed to enhance efficiency, technology access and skills upgrading.”

Economic analyst Mr Walter Mapfumo said the NDS2’s focus on modernising the timber value chain could strengthen competitiveness and boost exports. “Facilitating investment in modern sawmills and pulp and paper mills, supported by affordable financing and public-private partnerships, addresses long-standing capacity and efficiency gaps,” he said, adding that “retooling existing facilities and establishing timber‑processing clusters could lower production costs, improve product quality and create stronger linkages with downstream industries.”

For residents like Eli Shashua, a licensed tour guide from the community of Sansana, the change has been impossible to ignore. “The trees are starting to die,” he said after recent walks through the Sansana Forest in the Yatir region.

“When you step outside the community and look out, you see that most of the tree cover is simply gray,” he said. At this time of year, the forest would usually be green and preparing for the bloom of anemones and irises.

Instead, Shashua said he is seeing dead trees, felled trunks and clearings where dense stands once grew. “Quietly, these forests are disappearing — and it’s as if no one is bothered.”

According to Dr Shili Dor‑Haim, head of the Forest Management and Information Department at the Jewish National Fund, the observations are accurate. Forests across the south are in measurable decline after years of drought and a dramatic drop in rainfall.

In 2025, just 50% to 67% of the average annual rainfall fell, severely stressing conifer species. “The phenomenon has led to widespread damage to forests, with unprecedented tree mortality rates,” Dor‑Haim said.

Damage varies across the region. Sansana Forest has suffered a moderate decline, but Carmim Forest — dominated by Jerusalem pine — has experienced extensive die‑off.

Similar patterns are emerging in the Shikma, Meitar, Lachish, Yatir, Dudaim, and Gerar forests. A preliminary remote‑sensing survey covering 100,000 dunams from the Be’eri region to Yatir Forest found more than 50% mortality among conifers, particularly cypress trees.

JNF has begun mapping affected areas and preparing rehabilitation plans in line with updated climate‑adaptation guidelines. Officials say the new approach reflects Israel’s shifting environmental reality of rising temperatures, declining rainfall intensity, and longer dry seasons.

In many southern regions, annual rainfall has dropped below 150 millimetres, far below the historical average of 250 millimetres. The updated policy calls for adapting forest management to climate risk, selecting species suited to arid conditions, and encouraging natural regeneration.

Environmental groups have long warned that large‑scale afforestation in the Negev carries ecological risks. Some studies suggest that planting forests in bright, reflective desert landscapes can increase local warming and that climate‑mitigation benefits take decades to materialise.

Researchers also note that some forests were established in areas with challenging ecological conditions. In several regions, plantings have altered local land‑use patterns and created friction with nearby communities.

Dor‑Haim said the current die‑off reflects the cumulative impact of years of water stress. At Shaked Patrol Park, a major research site for desertification prevention, shrubs have collapsed after repeated drought cycles.

“Many years of drought cause plants to become extremely vulnerable due to water shortages and temperature stress,” she said. “Eventually, they reach a point of no return and collapse and die.”