That is according to Dr Daniel Roberts, the lead of theCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation’s Energy Technologies Research Program, who will speak at this month’s Renewable Fuels Summit.

Liquid fuels account for more than half of all final energy Australians consume and 30 per cent of national emissions: “There are really two drivers,” Roberts said. “One is emissions reduction. The other is fuel security. These have motivated alternative fuels research and energy independence ambitions for a long time.”

And whilst electric vehicles dominate the public conversation, Dr Roberts said the harder problem lies in aviation, international shipping, and diesel engines powering remote mine sites and farms. These are sectors where electrification, as he put it, “is unlikely to be able to do the heavy lifting.”

Why forest residues are now worth their weight in fuel!

That’s why CSIRO is now focused on biogenic fuels — converting biomass and organic waste into liquid fuel — a pathway Dr Roberts believes will deliver commercial results ahead of synthetic alternatives. Forestry residues, plantation waste, agricultural by-products and urban waste streams are all in scope. “It’s about recognising the value in our waste streams,” Dr Roberts said. “We have the opportunity domestically to build on existing technologies and make something really useful out of waste.”

The scale required is not small. Dr Roberts described facilities processing thousands of tonnes of feedstock daily, power-station-sized plants backed by hundreds of megawatts of electrolysers and industrial-grade carbon capture. “The first time you do something, it’s always harder and more expensive. But that’s how you learn and improve,” he said.

CSIRO is already active in the field, having participated in a world-first Australia-India trial that demonstrated, at scale, the partial replacement of coal with agricultural waste in steelmaking. It is also working with the Heavy Industry Low-Carbon Transition Cooperative Research Centre to de-risk biomass gasification pathways and cut natural gas dependence across heavy industry.

And on the commercial side, CSIRO is an active partner in the AFWI Fibre to Fuels project, which will see HAMR partner with a dozen or more partners in the forest value chain to demonstrate that plantation residues in Tasmania, Western Australia and the Green Triangle in Victoria’s timber towns can be turned into low-carbon liquid fuels.

Dr Roberts said the industry’s appetite had shifted markedly over the past five years, with net-zero commitments and geopolitical concerns about fuel supply pushing boardrooms to act. The sticking point remains policy certainty — large-scale infrastructure requires confidence that demand will be there for the life of the asset. “Companies considering 30-year infrastructure investments need certainty that customers will be there,” he said.

It comes as the federal government last year committed $1.1 billion to accelerate Australia’s low-carbon liquid fuels sector — a package the Low Carbon Fuels Alliance of Australia and New Zealand, which represents more than 300 stakeholders from feedstock producers to project developers, described as a turning point for sovereign fuel supply.

• To learn why the global timber trade is now tied up in Iranian conflict, click here for Wood Central’s special feature on the Strait of Hormuz last week.

That is according to a peer-reviewed study published this year in npj Natural Hazards, which used the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and an ensemble of dynamically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections to model how extreme fire weather will evolve under different levels of global warming.

Across Australia, once-in-twenty-year and once-in-fifty-year extreme fire events are projected to become 2.7 and 3.7 times more likely under 3°C of global warming. Whilst in southeast Australia’s eucalyptus forests those same benchmark events are projected to be 2.1-2.5 times more likely at the same warming level.

Tasmania faces the sharpest trajectory of any region studied.

Under 3°C of warming, 20-year return interval fire weather events are projected to become 3.2 times more likely, whilst 50-year return interval events are projected to become 4.1 times more likely. And even at 2°C of warming, Tasmania’s equivalent risk multipliers are 2.0 and 2.3, respectively.

The study, led by Ryan McGloin, warns that the Tasmanian findings warrant special attention, describing the projections as “particularly significant given Tasmania’s history of destructive bushfires and unique and vulnerable ecosystems that are potentially at risk of being replaced by more flammable vegetation when exposed to more frequent fires.”

The warning is grounded in history. The 1967 Black Tuesday fires killed 62 people and destroyed nearly 3,000 structures across southern Tasmania. Whilst in January 2013, fires razed 203 homes in the village of Dunalley alone. And unlike mainland forests, Tasmania’s vegetation mosaic — fire-sensitive rainforests, alpine shrublands and wet forests — faces a feedback loop in which more frequent fires progressively shift the landscape towards more flammable, fire-adapted vegetation.

A cycle, the authors say, has no natural brake.

The drivers differ by region. In Tasmania and southern Victoria, for example, projected increases in extreme fire weather are driven primarily by rising maximum temperatures, compounded by declining spring rainfall, which lifts the drought factor and lowers relative humidity on the continent’s worst fire days.

In the subtropical eucalyptus forests of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, increasing humidity associated with a shift towards positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode partially moderates the temperature impact, resulting in the study’s lowest projected increases. There, 20-year and 50-year return interval events are still projected to become 1.8 and 2.0 times more likely at 3°C — figures the researchers describe as not immaterial.

Spring has emerged as the season of greatest concern. Severe fire weather days (FFDI ≥ 50) are projected to rise substantially in north-western and central Australia, while Very High fire weather days (FFDI between 24 and 50) are projected to increase in both the north and south. The pattern points to an earlier onset and overall lengthening of the fire season — with a shrinking window for hazard-reduction burns, a direct operational consequence for fire agencies.

The study — authored by Ryan McGloin, Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Rohan Eccles, Nathan Toombs and Andrew Dowdy — is the first to apply the latest CMIP6 downscaled projections under different global warming levels to fire weather extremes specifically for southeast Australia’s eucalyptus forests.

For more information: McGloin, R., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J. et al. Substantial increases in the likelihood of extreme fire weather events for fire-prone ecosystems in Australia. npj Nat. Hazards 3, 28 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00193-9

Wood Central understands the deal is expected to fetch more than $100 million, with Gresham House, the UK asset manager with close to AU$7 billion in forestry and natural capital assets, making a play for the 22,000-hectare beef, dairy and cropping property 140 kilometres north-east of Launceston.

And its plans go far beyond milk and beef, with large-scale pine plantations, carbon projects, biodiversity credits and income from Australia’s Nature Repair Market all in the mix.

However, not everyone in the state’s north-east is welcoming the change.

“You can’t eat pine trees, that’s a big one,” according to St Helens beef farmer and former Liberal MP John Tucker, who spoke to ABC Rural Tasmania over the weekend. “I think it’s got a lot of potential for livestock farming out in that area. A lot more potential in my opinion than trees.”

Meanwhile, Rhys Beattie, the mayor of the Dorset Council, said that whilst the council is not opposed to forest-based industries, it is calling on both federal and state governments to carefully consider the implications of large-scale agricultural land conversions: “The preservation of productive agricultural land is vital to the sustainability and prosperity of our community.”

At the same time, TasFarmers president Ian Sauer has taken the matter to Canberra, meeting Federal Agriculture Minister Julie Collins to clarify what financial assistance, if any, is being directed toward tree planting in the north-east.

Gresham House’s track record.

Wood Central understands that the firm has managed forestry assets for more than 4 decades and is the world’s 7th-largest forestry investment manager. In December, it closed the first tranche of its Sustainable International Forestry Strategy Platform at €250 million — anchored by Worcestershire Pension Fund and Australian superannuation fund NGS Super — the first time an Australian super fund has partnered with the UK forest giant. The strategy targets allocating 40 per cent to Australia and New Zealand, with the balance split between Europe and other afforestation investments.

NGS Super chief investment officer Ben Squires said sustainable forestry aligns with the fund’s objectives to achieve stable, risk-adjusted returns while contributing to global climate and biodiversity goals.

It comes as Tasmania’s farmland commands the highest median price per hectare in the country, with investor appetite increasingly driven by carbon, biodiversity and renewable energy income alongside productive agricultural land. Rushy Lagoon is already earmarked for the ACEN Australia-managed North East Wind project — 210 turbines across Rushy Lagoon and Waterhouse — which was declared a project of state significance in 2022.

Sale agent Jarrod Ryan of RMS Advisory has declined to confirm details, saying only there is “nothing to report at this stage.” Gresham House was contacted for comment on the Rushy Lagoon bid specifically.

• To learn more about Gresham House’s timber strategy, click here for Wood Central’s special feature.

That is according to Pulse Tasmania, which reports the rig is designed to replicate the planned venue’s fixed-roof structure and will assess whether a treated version of the stadium’s ETFE roof material can eliminate the shadow problem that has dogged the project since early 2025.

Shadows have plagued the design from the beginning.

Last year, Wood Central reported that Cricket Australia and Cricket Tasmania wrote to the Tasmanian government demanding architects redesign or remove the roof entirely, saying the fixed-dome design made the venue “unlikely to be conducive to hosting Test matches” — and potentially unworkable for one-day and T20 fixtures too.

At the time, Anne Beach, the CEO of the Macquarie Point Development Corporation, told a parliamentary inquiry that the transparent covering created contrast on clear days — and that the timber and steel beams, engineered as small as possible, would still cast shadows.

However, in November, a Gold Coast company identified a potential fix: Cricket Tasmania CEO Dom Baker proposed a matte treatment that, when applied to one side of the ETFE material, would disperse light rather than pass straight through —  killing the sharp contrasts on the pitch.

Until this week, it had never been physically tested. Now, the rig will run assessments on shadow intensity, ball visibility, and playing conditions. It will also capture data on how roof treatments affect turf growth beneath — a secondary concern for groundskeepers at an indoor venue.

It comes after both houses of the Tasmanian Parliament approved the $1.13 billion project in December — the Upper House voting 9–5 after two days of debate. The 23,000-seat venue will be the permanent home of the Tasmania Devils AFL team. Its fixed dome, framed in Tasmanian-sourced glulam, would be the largest timber roof on any stadium in the world.

What the roof actually looks like

Late last year, Wood Central reported that the current design documents detail a hybrid timber roof lined with Tasmanian-sourced glulam, paired with metal deck cladding, steel rod bracing, and translucent ETFE pillows. The clearspan structure carries an internal clearance of 49 metres — enough headroom for Test-level cricket as well as AFL, soccer, and rugby.

The Macquarie Point Summary Report specifies lightweight ETFE pillows, a 20-millimetre timber laminate, a secondary glulam system, and Aramax metal deck cladding, all supported by steel rod bracing. The timber form is designed to reduce perceived bulk from street level and preserve harbour sightlines — a tough ask for a structure sitting on the edge of Hobart’s CBD.

That is according to AFWI Executive Director Dr Joseph Lawrence, who heads the $200 million R&D body — backed by $100 million in federal funding — and said the next round of grants, up to $2.5 million per project, was designed to drive systemic change, not incremental improvement.

It comes as the federal government has committed $54 million to develop modern methods of construction in Australia — part of a broader policy package that has seen prefab and modular housing formally recognised under the National Housing Accord.

And the new call targets the full forest and wood products value chain, with a particular emphasis on modernising industrial timber construction across housing delivery.

Wood Central understands projects must align with at least one of AFWI’s four strategic pillars — Healthier Forests, Maximising Fibre, Climate Solutions, and Housing Innovation — and demonstrate strong co-design with industry partners.

Indicative grants range from $50,000 to $2.5 million. Matching co-contributions of at least 50 per cent of the total project cost are required, with projects able to run for up to four years.

The round follows a two-stage process: an initial expression of interest, followed by an invitation to submit full proposals. AFWI is encouraging researchers and industry proponents to make contact ahead of the opening.

Eligible applicants include universities, CSIRO, industry associations, Indigenous organisations, not-for-profits, state and local governments, and private companies. Projects must be primarily based in Australia and hold a valid ABN. First Nations-led projects, or those incorporating Indigenous perspectives, are specifically welcomed.

• To learn more about the latest AFWI Open Call for Research, click here for more information.

That is according to prefabAUS executive chair Damien Crough, who spoke at Offsite25, From Factory to Future, on the Gold Coast last year.

But the turnaround was not accidental. At the 2024 meeting, prefabAUS leadership acknowledged they were “frankly downbeat” about progress — Modern Methods of Construction remained absent from major national programs despite offering clear solutions to Australia’s housing crisis. But the organisation declared it “a fight we simply must win” and launched a systematic campaign to elevate Smart Building to national priority status.

It worked.

Federal commitments now include $54 million specifically for MMC development, $49.3 million to support state and territory prefab and modular programs, and $4.7 million for a voluntary national certification process. Those allocations follow the November $900 million National Productivity Fund and an additional $120 million in targeted competition payments to accelerate prefabrication adoption.

Industry Development Specialist Lance Worrall said the formal recognition marks a decisive break from the past: “Smart Building is now explicitly recognised within the National Housing Accord, and in the Future Made in Australia industry programs,” he said, adding that the 2025 election outcome had allowed governments to act with greater urgency on housing and manufacturing.

Regulatory changes are now underway.

The Australian Building Codes Board has introduced new national standards for offsite construction — covering design, approvals, production and performance — alongside a manufacturer certification framework. Industry analysis estimates the framework could deliver between $2.9 billion and $5.7 billion in economic benefits.

Meanwhile, the state governments have followed with hard targets.

Queensland has set a 50 per cent MMC target for government projects, with a dedicated MMC sub-group now embedded within its Building Ministerial Advisory Council ahead of the 2032 Olympics. New South Wales launched a $10 million modular housing pilot with pattern-book fast approvals. Victoria committed $50 million to a Future of Housing Centre of Excellence. Western Australia allocated $50 million to its Housing Innovation Program. South Australia and Tasmania each established dedicated MMC social housing initiatives.

And financial investment is shifting, too. Commonwealth Bank now offers prefab-specific lending products enabling access to up to 80 per cent of the contract price before home installation — directly addressing cash flow and procurement barriers for manufacturers and developers. A Federal Treasury working group is separately reviewing the remaining financing obstacles to scaling factory-based production.

PrefabAUS says the momentum reflects a deliberate ten-year campaign. Crough pointed to the organisation’s “Building the Future We Want” roadmap — federal recognition enabling state programs that create demand for innovation hubs, which in turn grow manufacturing capacity and workforce skills. It comes as Wood Central reported on THE PRECINCT, a new model using Australian timber to make prefab viable at scale.

The contest, industry leaders say, is no longer whether MMC will reshape Australian housing. It is whether the sector can scale fast enough to keep production onshore. “The future for Australian Smart Building is a future built here, manufactured here,” Worrall said. “We will not have a Smart Building future unless it is A Future Built in Australia.”

It comes as female membership has climbed 10% over the last five years, a figure Martin says reflects a profession actively working to become more inclusive, more attractive, and more reflective of the communities it serves.

But Martin was quick to acknowledge the work ahead.

“Whilst we celebrate these achievements, we also acknowledge there is still more work to be done to create an environment where all individuals have the opportunity to thrive, and that includes women, people from non-English speaking backgrounds and First Nations People.”

Balancing the Scales

The milestone aligns with this year’s International Women’s Day theme — Balance the Scales — which calls for concrete action to dismantle the structural barriers holding women back from equal opportunity, representation and leadership across every profession.

For Forestry Australia, Martin says that means deliberate investment in mentoring, leadership pathways, and cultures that genuinely welcome diverse perspectives. “For forestry, that means continuing to invest in mentoring, leadership pathways and building organisations where individuals at every career stage feel genuinely welcome. And that means taking deliberate action, empowering supporting allies and creating cultures where diversity and broader perspectives can thrive.”

Martin will chair a panel discussion at the University of the Sunshine Coast Forest Research Institute on Monday, joined by Dr Lyndall Bull, Charlotte Raven, Dr Leanda Garvie and Kelly Stewart.

UniSC Forest Research Institute Director Professor Mark Brown said the occasion was an ideal opportunity to recognise the full contribution women are making to forest science. “International Women’s Day is an opportunity to recognise and celebrate the remarkable contributions women are making across every part of forestry research and practice. When we bring diverse voices, experiences and perspectives to the table, we strengthen not only our research institutions but also the forests and communities we serve,” Professor Brown said.

About International Women’s Day

Observed on March 8, International Women’s Day is a global occasion recognising the social, economic, cultural and political achievements of women. First celebrated in the early 1900s, it has grown into a worldwide movement calling for gender equality and the acceleration of women’s rights.

Each year, a campaign theme guides the global conversation — in 2026, Balance the Scales urges individuals, organisations and governments to take meaningful, structural action to close persistent gender gaps across every industry and sector.

The market price for diesel has increased from $130 in February to almost $220 per barrel in March, with retail diesel prices rising by almost 19 cents per litre since last Sunday.

Munro said trucking businesses operated on very tight margins and would have to pass fuel price increases onto their customers.

“Fuel is typically one of the top three costs for a trucking business,” he said. “Any increase in fuel prices has a big impact.

“Some trucking businesses have fuel levies that automatically adjust their invoices as the price of fuel changes. Others depend on periodic rate reviews — or don’t have rate review provisions in their contracts at all.”

Munro said trucking businesses needed to review their costs and, if necessary, have open conversations with their customers about bringing forward the next fuel levy adjustment or rate review.

Operators also needed to plan for delays in filling fuel orders due to increased demand.

“Trucking businesses cannot be expected to absorb the cost of increased fuel prices,” Munro said. “Our industry is already under extreme pressure, with one in every 12 businesses closing in the 12 months to November 2025.”

The ATA and its members have campaigned since 2014 to strengthen Australia’s fuel security. As a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Australia is required to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of net imports.

The ATA pushed back against the previous government’s plan to store Australia’s fuel reserves in the United States — “on the other side of a very wide ocean,” Munro pointed out.

“We also worked with the industry department on the 2021 legislation that established the current national fuel reserve. Under its minimum stockholding obligation (MSO) rules, fuel importers and refiners are required to hold baseline levels of fuel.

“About three billion litres of diesel are held under the MSO — enough to last 33 days. The fuel is in Australia or on ships nearby. Our total oil stocks are equivalent to 50 days of net imports in IEA terms.

“The federal government has made progress on Australia’s fuel security, but it’s been a problem for many years. Australia needs to have the 90 days of net import cover that we signed up to hold.”

Munro said the rise in diesel prices underscored the importance of the ATA’s submission to the Fair Work Commission (FWC) regarding the contractual chain order it was considering. The FWC has the power to issue orders covering the whole of the road transport contract chain.

“In our submission, we supported a requirement for yearly rate reviews, but with more frequent reviews of the price of fuel — unless a contract already includes a fuel levy mechanism,” he said.

“Those requirements won’t come into force until late 2027 at the absolute earliest. The solution for now is for trucking companies to monitor their costs and talk to their customers.”

The ATA said it would continue engaging with the government and fuel suppliers.

“We must emphasise the critical importance of road freight transport to everyone in Australia,” Munro said.

Slated to open later this year, the $1.45 billion, 39-storey ‘plyscraper’ will eventually contain more than 30,000 cubic metres of timber — shipped by European giants Stora Enso and Wiehag — across 21 storeys of the tower, with seven four-storey’ timber habitats’ sandwiched between steel-and-concrete mega floor plates above a seven-storey concrete podium.

And the glass panels going up are anything but conventional.

Spanish BIPV manufacturer Onyx Solar — working through Australian building products supplier Metz — is installing 1,794 crystalline silicon solar louvres across the tower’s active facade as part of a bespoke 247 kWp system. Speaking to PV Magazine Australia earlier this month, Onyx Solar revealed that each unit carries 28 mono-crystalline cells in a 4+4 mm glass configuration and produces 138 Wp at peak output. “The louvres also form a self-shading system that cuts direct solar heat gain internally,” Onya Solar said, turning the tower’s skin into a “vertical power source.”

Designed by BVN and New York-based SHoP, each ‘habitat’ comprises four floors of timbered space stacked inside a steel exoskeleton, eliminating the need for internal columns. “The timber floors are connected to the concrete floors via drag straps,” said Tim Allen, timber structural lead for TTW, who spoke at Timber Construct — Australia’s only timber construction conference — in late 2024. “Why build a 39-storey building partly out of timber?” Allen said. “Because it comes down to using the right timber for the right application.”

Whilst in October last year, Peter Morley, the Dexus project director overseeing the build, said the team had “broken the back on the most technical, structural phase of the project,” with the hybrid timber approach allowing the developers “to bring the building up quicker and get the façade on quicker than a more traditional build.”

“That’s because we’re jumping up five levels every time, and while we’re going up, we’re coming back and infilling with the timber within each of those five-storey zones,” Morley said. Atlassian Central is co-owned by Dexus and Atlassian, with Built and Japanese construction giant Obayashi appointed as builders, confirming the building remains “on schedule” for a 2026 opening, with the tech giant expected to take over five of the seven habitats in late 2028 following a full fit-out.

At street level, crews are also well advanced on a new pedestrian connection from Railway Colonnade Drive to the Devonshire Street Tunnel entrance — the heritage passage running beneath Central Station between Lee Street and Devonshire Street — which will, for the first time, allow pedestrians to access the tunnel directly from the colonnade as part of Central’s broader Third Square redevelopment.

Operating out of HAMR Energy’s Portland Renewable Fuels facility — backed by the Australian Government’s $1.1 billion Cleaner Fuels Program — the company is looking to produce up to 300,000 tonnes of low-carbon methanol produced from the Green Triangle alone. Whilst a second plant, Australia’s first methanol-to-jet facility, will go further: 135 million litres of SAF per year from an $800 million plant announced earlier this week.

Forestry residues are not waste.

Speaking about the recent announcements, Timber Towns Victoria President Cr Karen Stephens said the projects demonstrate the value of forest products (including residues) to the local economy: “Forestry residues are not waste — they are a valuable resource that can be turned into low-carbon fuels for use in aviation and shipping, creating jobs and new income streams for regional Victoria.”

Meanwhile, OneFortyOne’s Director of Corporate Strategy, Nick Chan, recently called the project “a defining moment for plantation forestry in Australia,” pointing to the Green Triangle’s year-round operations, established logistics, and sheer scale as the natural feedstock advantage.

Australia has almost no domestic SAF production.

That gap is the opportunity. And with federal funding already flowing and aviation partners already committed, the Green Triangle doesn’t need to wait for someone else to build the market — it just needs Victoria to recognise what’s already here.

“Our communities have always understood the value of the plantation estate,” Stephens said. “This investment is proof that the forestry sector has a strong and diversified future – and we call on the Victorian Government to recognise the strategic importance of the Green Triangle and ensure regional communities capture the full economic benefit of Australia’s emerging renewable fuels sector.”

• To learn more about the ‘Fibre to Fuels’ project, click here for Wood Central’s special feature last month. And to learn more about the opportunities for Victoria’s timber towns, click here for Timber Towns Victoria’s media statement.