Japanese sawmills are continuing to cut back on production, with new data from the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries showing that local mills cut output by 8.8% for January (to 579,000 cubic metres), continuing a long‑running decline in lumber production.
On a 12‑month basis, mills produced 6.95 million cubic metres of lumber, with shipments leaving Japanese ports standing at 591,000 cubic metres for the month — down 7.8% from December and 5.3% year on year — while ending inventory came in at 1.08 million cubic metres, down 8.1% month on month and 15.8% year on year.
The new data comes after Wood Central last month reported that Japanese housing starts fell 6.5% in 2025, extending a decline that has pushed new‑build volumes to less than half the levels from the early 1990s. Japan built just 740,667 homes last year — 16% below the 10‑year average of 883,184 units. And while the share of wooden homes has been climbing — with five of the past six months recording 60% or more timber‑frame construction — total volumes of wooden houses still fell 4% across the year.
At the same time that the domestic market is in decline, Japanese mills and fabricators are looking offshore to fully commercialise their timber technologies. Speaking to Wood Central’s Jason Ross at last year’s Timber Construct conference in Melbourne, Yuichi Shinohara, managing director of the Shinohara Group, and Shingi Tarirah, the company’s structural coordinator, said Japan’s “click and set” prefabrication systems could help fix Australia’s housing shortfall.
As one of Japan’s largest timber fabricators — responsible for fabricating 4,000 or more timber frames every year — Tarirah said the company’s patented pre‑cut technology is highly efficient and much safer than other methods. “We just need to find the right local supply partner to bring the technology to the Australian market,” Shinohara said.
Despite the production slump, Japan remains a prized destination for foreign lumber. Earlier this month, Wood Central reported that Japan — not China, South Korea or even India — is Canada’s top target for lumber exports, with its shift from single‑family homes to multi‑storey timber buildings creating ideal conditions for Canadian forest products. “Japan gives the highest possible return to the industry in terms of the value of the lumber they import,” said Bruce St. John, president of the Canada Wood Group. “They import our traditional products, and we make products that are specific to their market.”
- To read Wood Central’s coverage of Japan’s housing starts and the Shinohara Group’s offshore push, click here for Wood Central’s special feature.
