That is according to a peer-reviewed study published this year in npj Natural Hazards, which used the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and an ensemble of dynamically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections to model how extreme fire weather will evolve under different levels of global warming.

Across Australia, once-in-twenty-year and once-in-fifty-year extreme fire events are projected to become 2.7 and 3.7 times more likely under 3°C of global warming. Whilst in southeast Australia’s eucalyptus forests those same benchmark events are projected to be 2.1-2.5 times more likely at the same warming level.

Tasmania faces the sharpest trajectory of any region studied.

Under 3°C of warming, 20-year return interval fire weather events are projected to become 3.2 times more likely, whilst 50-year return interval events are projected to become 4.1 times more likely. And even at 2°C of warming, Tasmania’s equivalent risk multipliers are 2.0 and 2.3, respectively.

The study, led by Ryan McGloin, warns that the Tasmanian findings warrant special attention, describing the projections as “particularly significant given Tasmania’s history of destructive bushfires and unique and vulnerable ecosystems that are potentially at risk of being replaced by more flammable vegetation when exposed to more frequent fires.”

The warning is grounded in history. The 1967 Black Tuesday fires killed 62 people and destroyed nearly 3,000 structures across southern Tasmania. Whilst in January 2013, fires razed 203 homes in the village of Dunalley alone. And unlike mainland forests, Tasmania’s vegetation mosaic — fire-sensitive rainforests, alpine shrublands and wet forests — faces a feedback loop in which more frequent fires progressively shift the landscape towards more flammable, fire-adapted vegetation.

A cycle, the authors say, has no natural brake.

The drivers differ by region. In Tasmania and southern Victoria, for example, projected increases in extreme fire weather are driven primarily by rising maximum temperatures, compounded by declining spring rainfall, which lifts the drought factor and lowers relative humidity on the continent’s worst fire days.

In the subtropical eucalyptus forests of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, increasing humidity associated with a shift towards positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode partially moderates the temperature impact, resulting in the study’s lowest projected increases. There, 20-year and 50-year return interval events are still projected to become 1.8 and 2.0 times more likely at 3°C — figures the researchers describe as not immaterial.

Spring has emerged as the season of greatest concern. Severe fire weather days (FFDI ≥ 50) are projected to rise substantially in north-western and central Australia, while Very High fire weather days (FFDI between 24 and 50) are projected to increase in both the north and south. The pattern points to an earlier onset and overall lengthening of the fire season — with a shrinking window for hazard-reduction burns, a direct operational consequence for fire agencies.

The study — authored by Ryan McGloin, Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Rohan Eccles, Nathan Toombs and Andrew Dowdy — is the first to apply the latest CMIP6 downscaled projections under different global warming levels to fire weather extremes specifically for southeast Australia’s eucalyptus forests.

For more information: McGloin, R., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J. et al. Substantial increases in the likelihood of extreme fire weather events for fire-prone ecosystems in Australia. npj Nat. Hazards 3, 28 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00193-9

Operating out of HAMR Energy’s Portland Renewable Fuels facility — backed by the Australian Government’s $1.1 billion Cleaner Fuels Program — the company is looking to produce up to 300,000 tonnes of low-carbon methanol produced from the Green Triangle alone. Whilst a second plant, Australia’s first methanol-to-jet facility, will go further: 135 million litres of SAF per year from an $800 million plant announced earlier this week.

Forestry residues are not waste.

Speaking about the recent announcements, Timber Towns Victoria President Cr Karen Stephens said the projects demonstrate the value of forest products (including residues) to the local economy: “Forestry residues are not waste — they are a valuable resource that can be turned into low-carbon fuels for use in aviation and shipping, creating jobs and new income streams for regional Victoria.”

Meanwhile, OneFortyOne’s Director of Corporate Strategy, Nick Chan, recently called the project “a defining moment for plantation forestry in Australia,” pointing to the Green Triangle’s year-round operations, established logistics, and sheer scale as the natural feedstock advantage.

Australia has almost no domestic SAF production.

That gap is the opportunity. And with federal funding already flowing and aviation partners already committed, the Green Triangle doesn’t need to wait for someone else to build the market — it just needs Victoria to recognise what’s already here.

“Our communities have always understood the value of the plantation estate,” Stephens said. “This investment is proof that the forestry sector has a strong and diversified future – and we call on the Victorian Government to recognise the strategic importance of the Green Triangle and ensure regional communities capture the full economic benefit of Australia’s emerging renewable fuels sector.”

• To learn more about the ‘Fibre to Fuels’ project, click here for Wood Central’s special feature last month. And to learn more about the opportunities for Victoria’s timber towns, click here for Timber Towns Victoria’s media statement.

“Unfortunately, there’s not much you can do apart from deal with asbestos when you find it to ensure that you’re providing a safe workplace and a safe building going forward,” according to Victorian Treasurer Jaclyn Symes, who spoke to ABC Melbourne Radio, who confirmed that the bill sits with the government and not the Australian Grand Prix Corporation under its contract with F1 rights holder Liberty Media.

Last month, Wood Central reported that the new building will include a striking timber waffle roof design — joining a growing roster of F1 facilities swapping steel and concrete for hybrid cross-laminated timber systems. Renders produced by Woods Bagot show a massive roof that will eventually shelter 14 F1 team garages.

“What excites us most about this design is how it elevates both elite motorsport and grassroots community sport under one roof,” said Woods Bagot Director Bruno Mendes, the project’s design lead. “We’ve engineered a facility that doesn’t just host one of the world’s premier racing events — it actively gives back to the local sporting community every day of the year.”

Inside the canopy, race control suites, media workrooms and administration offices sit alongside the garages, with expansive hospitality terraces framed by CLT beams and full-height glazing offering circuit and lake views for 5,000 Paddock Club guests. When Grand Prix teams pack up each year, the complex converts into a community sporting hub with seven indoor courts and clubrooms for local football, netball and basketball clubs.

Delivered by a consortium of AECOM, Icon and Woods Bagot, the redevelopment draws on the same team behind the award-winning T3 Collingwood — Melbourne’s tallest hybrid timber office building, also built by Icon.

Drawing record attendance, the Treasurer was happy to spruik the benefits of hosting the race: “I can point to the fact that the Grand Prix is a major economic contributor to the state and I know that many people are going to get along to that race this weekend,” she said. “It fills beds in hotels and people going out for dinner, and it keeps everyone busy, and it supports thousands of jobs.”

As for the existing building, constructed in 1995, Wood Central understands that full demolition is slated to begin days after Sunday’s race, with the new facility scheduled for completion ahead of the 2028 Grand Prix.

• To learn more about Melbourne’s Formula 1 Pit Lane building, one of Australia’s largest timber projects in development, click here for Wood Central’s special feature from last month.

That is according to the latest ABARES Agricultural Commodities Report, published yesterday, which revealed that the gross value of forestry (GVP) production is expected to reach $2.23 billion in 2026-27 — a 3 per cent nominal increase or a 1 per cent real increase. And over the medium term, the GVP is projected to drop back $2.1 billion, with no material growth expected until at least 2030-31.

By the numbers, total gross value production in forests has dropped by 36 per cent over the past eight years — from about $3.4 billion in 2017-18 — with softwood relatively steady at about $1.5 billion, hardwood plantations flatlining at $0.5 billion and native forest continuing what is now a 20-year decline.

According to Diana Hallam, CEO of the Australian Forest Products Association, whilst the topline figures point to the vital role of sustainable forestry in producing essential products, the report also identified serious challenges and headwinds for the sector.

“Some of these challenges and risks include high manufacturing and energy costs, greater use of structural steel in residential and mid-rise construction, as well as a growing amount of imported timber products of varying quality flooding the Australian marketplace, including from China,” she said.

Hallam said the new estimates also reaffirmed the importance of aligning the government’s policy with Australia’s Timber Fibre Strategy, which outlines opportunities for the industry to make a greater contribution to national goals in carbon, innovation, and housing construction.

Softwood up, hardwood down, native at historic lows

The value of softwood plantation production is forecast to increase slightly in 2026-27, driven by short-term movements in detached housing demand. But ABARES warns that a gradual shift toward higher-density dwellings is expected to temper timber demand over the medium term, whilst projected increases in softwood log availability will ease unit prices.

Hardwood plantation production, however, is heading the other way.

And that’s because ongoing shifts in global paper markets are placing downward pressure on woodchip demand, whilst Vietnam’s growing share of global trade — combined with projected exchange rate changes — is continuing to erode Australia’s competitiveness overseas. ABARES expects Australian hardwood woodchip exports to settle at similar volumes but lower unit prices, with Australia holding a smaller, more specialised role in the market.

And then there is native forestry, where production has now fallen to historically low levels following 20 years of contraction driven by the transfer of multiple-use public native forests to nature conservation reserves and increased harvest restrictions.

A $570 million downward revision

ABARES has slashed its forestry forecast by more than $570 million — a 21 per cent revision from its December report — with exports the major driver of the writedown, down more than $619 million amid weaker production and prices.

It comes days after this masthead reported on a new white paper from the Rozetta Institute arguing that Australia needs a national roadmap to boost forest productivity and encourage new capital into the market.

On Friday, Wood Central spoke to the white paper’s lead author, Steve Walker, Principal of Terrafolia Advisory, and co-author Dr Lyndall Bull, who revealed that Australian plantations produce just 15 to 18 cubic metres per hectare per year against international benchmarks of 30 to 50.

And on Monday, Walker went further, telling Wood Central the sector’s decades-long focus on cost discipline had come at the expense of genuine value creation. “Lifting productivity on the land already planted is the fastest and most scalable opportunity,” Walker said. “International benchmarks in Brazil, India, Vietnam and China demonstrate that 30 to 50 cubic metres per hectare per year is achievable using proven technologies already available.”

“If we can do this, we can ultimately strengthen our capacity to produce more competitive engineered wood products like LVL and other EWPs,” he said, adding that the downstream benefits could add tens of millions of dollars to regional communities.

• For more information, including the ABARES full March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report, visit the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

Now, Australian Sustainable Hardwoods (ASH) — the country’s largest hardwood processor — says a $600,000 AFWI-funded research project is helping the industry find its way forward, with new species, new engineered products and new performance data that could change how timber windows are specified in Australia.

Daniel Wright, ASH’s National Business Development Manager, told Wood Central that window manufacturers are a big part of the company’s supply chain — from commodity and painted windows through to high-end architectural manufacturers — mostly across south-eastern states, but with a growing presence in northern New South Wales.

And Wright said the fallout from the decision to cease harvesting in Victorian forests has been immediate. “The window manufacturers of south-east Australia have been forced into a lot of change with the cessation of native timber in Victoria — just like we have,” he said. “But they also have upcoming changes to the NCC, which will structurally change how many of them operate.”

“Of course, what impacts our supply chain also impacts us.”

That disruption created confusion. “We’ve recently seen imported plantation timbers in the window market that don’t meet the specs they are intended for,” Wright said. “This was a direct result of Victoria’s hardwood being suddenly ceased. The window makers were trying to do the right thing, but were forced to make quick decisions.”

As one of the major stakeholders in the AFWI–AGWA Modernising Timber Windows project, led jointly by the Timber Development Association and the Australian Glass and Window Association, Australian Sustainable Hardwoods is providing timber species for testing their performance in modern systems.

“When we were asked to be involved, we saw this project as an opportunity to work together and help the window makers collectively find pathways forward that not only suit their specific needs, but also comply with upcoming changes to the NCC,” Wright said.

The project is also a chance for ASH to advance one of its newer species — Plantation Oak — as the company rebuilds markets lost when Victorian ash was taken away. Made from Shining Gum logs grown in a plantation for pulp, Plantation Oak is upgraded by ASH into higher-end, longer-term applications. Wright said a small part of every log can be used for architectural applications, but the majority needs to be engineered to get the best out of it.

“We’ve had success with Plantation Oak in MASSLAM, but in order to use this fibre in other market segments, we need to help build the standards and examples that everyone can follow with confidence,” he said. ASH is one of 10 timber suppliers involved in the project, alongside the Pentarch Group and others.

Now, the testing programme is about to shift up a gear.

Speaking to Wood Central today, Kylan Low — the Structural Engineer at the Timber Development Association leading the project — said next week’s round will put four configurations through their paces: a double-hung window, an awning and casement window, an awning and double casement window, and a centre bifold door. Low said the configurations are designed to capture various hardware setups used across the industry and will be tested under combined air and water pressure for durations representing storm periods.

In January, Low told Wood Central that the industry had been craving this kind of data for a very long time: “Window data hasn’t kept up with changes in codes, glazing, and timber supply.”

The project has also given a platform to the next generation. Jesse Ross — a Graduate Engineer at AGWA who has been working alongside Low since the project’s inception — recently shared his reflections on what has become his first major engineering project. Ross said that, unlike uPVC and aluminium systems, there was no prime operator in the timber window sector, meaning the entire system had to be built from the ground up.

Early testing revealed that some Australian hardwoods, such as Spotted Gum and Blackbutt, could outperform European staples. But given the project’s focus on species substitution, the team chose to work with the lowest passing species it could find. Designs have settled on 55/58 mm sash profiles with 24 mm glazing pockets, accommodating modern insulated glass units and manufacturable by small-scale workshops.

Ross said the industry engagement phase — travelling to state forums, meeting joiners, hardware suppliers and timber providers — was one of the most eye-opening parts of the experience. He found some joineries still working with outdated designs that didn’t fully comply with AS 2047 or accommodate drained insulated glass units.

“I learned that innovation is not just about creating new ideas,” Ross wrote, “but also about making them accessible to your audience.” The documentation phase — technical manuals, substitution procedures, shop drawings — is now underway, aiming to give any Australian joinery everything it needs to start building with confidence.”

The Modernising Timber Windows project is one of 30 research initiatives funded through AFWI — a $200-million-plus institute backed by $100 million in Commonwealth funding. It is generating new structural and performance data across a range of solid and engineered wood products, testing how timbers perform under AS 2047, Australia’s mandatory standard for windows and external glazed doors.

• To learn more about the Australian Forest and Wood Innovations programme, visit AFWI’s dedicated website.

That is according to Carlie Porteous, manager of the Murray Region Forestry Hub Softwoods Working Group, who revealed the recovered trees will have their burnt bark removed before being transported to mills in Wangaratta, Benalla and Tumbarumba, where they will be turned into furniture and structural timber, or to Visy’s Tumit mill, where they will be used for paper and packaging.

Speaking to local media, Porteous said the Working Group has already met with the federal government and is busy assisting the Towong, Snowy Valleys and Greater Hume councils in lobbying for additional funding to support local roads that will carry the increased haulage task.

“The salvage operation will take place over the next 10 months and will lead to an increased heavy‑vehicle haulage task on our local and regional roads,” she said, pointing to routes like the Shelley–Walwa Road, which is in major need of continual improvement.

Timber growers should receive the same disaster support as farmers.

As for disaster recovery, Porteous said the industry will continue working with all levels of government to ensure timber processors and growers have access to the same support as other primary industries.

“Trees take 30 years to grow, and therefore the impact of the fires on this industry is longer term than, say, cropping or livestock,” she said. And whilst the fires occurred in Victoria, the economic impact of the recovery will be felt primarily in southern NSW, where much of the timber processing occurs.

The operations follow Wood Central’s last month reporting that an estimated 11,000 hectares of HVP Plantations plantations were damaged by fire, including areas only recently replanted after the 2019–20 Black Summer fires. “Our readiness during last week’s extreme and catastrophic conditions has transitioned to the next phase of active firefighting,” HVP Plantions said in a statement last month. “While we’re still assessing the extent of the losses, our teams have been regrouping and reorganising for the long road ahead.”

• To learn more about Victoria’s bushfires, which burnt through more than 400,000 hectares of forest land, click here for Wood Central’s special feature.

According to Edwina Vulcz of WTIBeam, the GL24 product is the strongest engineered timber beam available in the Australian marketplace and is well-suited for commercial, residential, and prefab applications.

Originally developed as part of a Victorian-funded project, Splinters to Structures, Vulcz said work is now underway on an even more ambitious project, but this time funded thrugh Australia’s new $200m AFWI research and innovation fund, which, if successful will see if glulam and laminated veneer lumber made from pulp logs can be scaled up and commercialised in “The Precinct” – a new project that has major backing from the timber supply chain, Deakin University, the University of South Australia, the Port of Portland and the Timber, Furnishings and Textiles Union (TFTU), Australia’s only dedicated timber union.

According to Tim Woods, development lead for The Precinct project, the research (and TV series) demonstrates first and foremost that Australia has the capacity to grow and produce more engineered timber right here at home. “Viewers will see that the wood fibre, skills and technology already exist here locally. The Precinct project in Portland provides a pathway to bring that capability together in one place and keep more value, jobs and expertise in regional Australia. It’s great to see a national broadcaster shine a light on this specialised capability,” he said.

• To learn more about The Precinct project, click here for Wood Central’s special feature from late last year. And to learn more about South Australia’s new Forestry Centre of Excellence, amongst the first to showcase WTIBEAM’s blue gum glulam, click here for Wood Central’s story from last week.

“This mill closure is the glaring outcome of an ad-hoc decision by the government that has lasting impacts across communities at so many levels,” according to Karen Stephens, President of Timber Towns Victoria, which represents municipalities in the state’s north, east and west. “The Swift Creek community need genuine government support that has dependable outcomes.”

Stephens, herself a councillor and mayor of the Glenelg Shire in the state’s southwest, said the closure highlights the ongoing challenges local communities face as they work to find a future for themselves post native forestry.

Established by the Ezard family in the immediate aftermath of the 1939 Black Friday bushfires, the sawmill operated for decades as a hardwood sawmill, supplying structural timber, pallets, and general hardwood products from mountain ash, alpine ash, silvertop ash, and messmate.

Speaking to The Weekly Times last month, long‑time community advocate Stephen Richardson said the mill’s closure has left the Swifts Creek community facing uncertainty: “Swifts Creek is in real trouble,” Richardson warned. “The promise to put all those timber jobs somewhere else locally hasn’t been kept.”

Last month, Wood Central reported that Victorian communities, like Swifts Creek, that are at high risk of fire are far less prepared than they were during the Black Summer fires, with the decision to cease native forestry in 2023 contributing to a talent and resource drain across the state’s timber towns.

“One of the consequences of ending native forest harvesting has been the loss of skilled and experienced operators,” according to Steve Dobbyns, executive officer for Forest and Wood Communities Australia. “We are now seeing that in the bushfire crisis, where multiple pieces of heavy plant — including dozers and harvesting machines — are currently stood down because there are not enough qualified people to operate them. Lives, property and environmental assets are at greater risk when that capability is missing.”

It comes as leaders in East Gippsland called on the Allen government to reinstate key roles cut from the Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action (DEECA) and Parks Victoria, who, between them, are now responsible for managing the state’s parks and forests in Cann River, Orbost, Bairnsdale, Swifts Creek and Nowa Nowa.

Speaking about the cuts, Melina Bath, Victoria’s Opposition spokeswoman for Public Land, said restoring the jobs was essential to meeting fuel-reduction targets. “To make sure we are doing the right amount of fuel‑reduction burning, we need the best expertise,” she said. “We don’t want to be hamstrung by metropolitan Melbourne decision-making that is highly ignorant of the reality of fuel loads. We need to be regionalising the workforce.”

“Wesbeam has a foundation where capable, committed people are aligned to a clear purpose and take pride in what they deliver. My focus is on strengthening that culture while driving disciplined performance and operational excellence,” Everest said. “Wesbeam’s scale and national reach, combined with its reputation for quality and reliability, position us strongly as engineered timber continues to gain broader acceptance in residential and commercial construction.”

With an eye to the future, Everest said his focus is on disciplined execution and extracting full value from the platform already built. His priorities include operational excellence and productivity, safety leadership and capability development, strategic customer and stakeholder partnerships, sustainable and disciplined growth, and market expansion through innovation.

Asked why Wesbeam, Everest pointed to the company’s reputation for quality, reliability, and national reach — attributes that have cemented its role as a critical supplier to builders, merchants, and frame-and-truss manufacturers across the country. Wesbeam, he said, is a business built on “capable, committed people aligned to a clear purpose,” adding that strengthening that culture while driving disciplined performance will remain central to his leadership.

Wesbeam operates a world‑scale, 24/7 manufacturing facility in Neerabup, Western Australia, supported by a long‑term plantation timber supply agreement with the WA Government. That agreement provides a level of security and consistency that has become increasingly rare in a market grappling with supply‑chain volatility.

Everest also acknowledged the outstanding contribution of outgoing CEO James Malone, who retired after leading Wesbeam through major phases of growth and capability development. “James and the team have built strong foundations,” Everest said. “My focus is on respecting that legacy while helping the organisation continue to evolve, execute and perform.”

Founded in 2001, Wesbeam has grown into a nationally significant manufacturer with distribution hubs across Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. The company employs just under 300 people and has been recognised as a Great Place to Work for three consecutive years, whilst investment in automation, plant upgrades and sustainability initiatives continues to lift productivity as Australia looks to expand housing supply and reduce the construction industry’s carbon footprint.

• To learn more about Wesbeam and its projects, click here for Wood Central’s special feature on Bluerock Project’s Tupy Gardens, a $25 million timber-framed apartment complex where Bluerock picked Wesbeam’s LVL over brick.

“The current building does not meet the standards required by Formula 1 and the motorsport governing body, Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile, to host a Formula 1 event,” according to Development Victoria, the statutory body overseeing the project, revealing that the new build will help secure the flagship for the next decade. “The pit building is being redeveloped to ensure Melbourne can continue to host the Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix through to 2037.”

Wood Central understands that the new complex will be framed inside a giant mass-timber superstructure—one of Australia’s largest mass-timber installations in design—and will join a growing roster of F1 facilities that are swapping steel and concrete for hybrid cross-laminated timber systems.

Early works commenced last July, with Icon Construction crews mobilising to carry out geotechnical investigations, utility relocations and preliminary earthworks. These preparatory activities ensure the site is primed for full-scale construction immediately after the 2026 event.

“What excites us most about this design is how it elevates both elite motorsport and grassroots community sport under one roof,” according to Bruno Mendes, of Woods Bagot, the design lead for the project. “We’ve engineered a facility that doesn’t just host one of the world’s premier racing events—it actively gives back to the local sporting community every day of the year.”

Inside the timber canopy, 12 Formula 1 team garages and two additional bays for officials will be situated alongside state-of-the-art race control suites, media workrooms, and administration offices. Expansive hospitality terraces—framed by cross-laminated timber beams and full-height glazing—will offer unrivalled views of the circuit and lake for 5,000 additional spectators.

A key feature is the building’s dual-use ambition. When Grand Prix teams pack up, the pit complex will seamlessly convert into a community sporting hub complete with indoor courts and clubrooms for local football, netball and basketball clubs. “We’re not just building for the Grand Prix,” a project spokesperson added. “This facility will be a year-round asset for Albert Park and the surrounding suburbs.”

The redevelopment is a joint initiative between Development Victoria, the Australian Grand Prix Corporation, Parks Victoria, the State Sport Centres Trust and the Department of Jobs, Skills, Industry and Regions, with full funding committed by the Victorian Government. Major construction is scheduled to run from mid-2026 until just before the 2028 Grand Prix week, with race operations continuing uninterrupted throughout. Development Victoria has pledged that “works will not affect the running of the event.”