That is according to a peer-reviewed study published this year in npj Natural Hazards, which used the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and an ensemble of dynamically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections to model how extreme fire weather will evolve under different levels of global warming.

Across Australia, once-in-twenty-year and once-in-fifty-year extreme fire events are projected to become 2.7 and 3.7 times more likely under 3°C of global warming. Whilst in southeast Australia’s eucalyptus forests those same benchmark events are projected to be 2.1-2.5 times more likely at the same warming level.

Tasmania faces the sharpest trajectory of any region studied.

Under 3°C of warming, 20-year return interval fire weather events are projected to become 3.2 times more likely, whilst 50-year return interval events are projected to become 4.1 times more likely. And even at 2°C of warming, Tasmania’s equivalent risk multipliers are 2.0 and 2.3, respectively.

The study, led by Ryan McGloin, warns that the Tasmanian findings warrant special attention, describing the projections as “particularly significant given Tasmania’s history of destructive bushfires and unique and vulnerable ecosystems that are potentially at risk of being replaced by more flammable vegetation when exposed to more frequent fires.”

The warning is grounded in history. The 1967 Black Tuesday fires killed 62 people and destroyed nearly 3,000 structures across southern Tasmania. Whilst in January 2013, fires razed 203 homes in the village of Dunalley alone. And unlike mainland forests, Tasmania’s vegetation mosaic — fire-sensitive rainforests, alpine shrublands and wet forests — faces a feedback loop in which more frequent fires progressively shift the landscape towards more flammable, fire-adapted vegetation.

A cycle, the authors say, has no natural brake.

The drivers differ by region. In Tasmania and southern Victoria, for example, projected increases in extreme fire weather are driven primarily by rising maximum temperatures, compounded by declining spring rainfall, which lifts the drought factor and lowers relative humidity on the continent’s worst fire days.

In the subtropical eucalyptus forests of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, increasing humidity associated with a shift towards positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode partially moderates the temperature impact, resulting in the study’s lowest projected increases. There, 20-year and 50-year return interval events are still projected to become 1.8 and 2.0 times more likely at 3°C — figures the researchers describe as not immaterial.

Spring has emerged as the season of greatest concern. Severe fire weather days (FFDI ≥ 50) are projected to rise substantially in north-western and central Australia, while Very High fire weather days (FFDI between 24 and 50) are projected to increase in both the north and south. The pattern points to an earlier onset and overall lengthening of the fire season — with a shrinking window for hazard-reduction burns, a direct operational consequence for fire agencies.

The study — authored by Ryan McGloin, Ralph Trancoso, Jozef Syktus, Rohan Eccles, Nathan Toombs and Andrew Dowdy — is the first to apply the latest CMIP6 downscaled projections under different global warming levels to fire weather extremes specifically for southeast Australia’s eucalyptus forests.

For more information: McGloin, R., Trancoso, R., Syktus, J. et al. Substantial increases in the likelihood of extreme fire weather events for fire-prone ecosystems in Australia. npj Nat. Hazards 3, 28 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00193-9

That is according to the latest ABARES Agricultural Commodities Report, published yesterday, which revealed that the gross value of forestry (GVP) production is expected to reach $2.23 billion in 2026-27 — a 3 per cent nominal increase or a 1 per cent real increase. And over the medium term, the GVP is projected to drop back $2.1 billion, with no material growth expected until at least 2030-31.

By the numbers, total gross value production in forests has dropped by 36 per cent over the past eight years — from about $3.4 billion in 2017-18 — with softwood relatively steady at about $1.5 billion, hardwood plantations flatlining at $0.5 billion and native forest continuing what is now a 20-year decline.

According to Diana Hallam, CEO of the Australian Forest Products Association, whilst the topline figures point to the vital role of sustainable forestry in producing essential products, the report also identified serious challenges and headwinds for the sector.

“Some of these challenges and risks include high manufacturing and energy costs, greater use of structural steel in residential and mid-rise construction, as well as a growing amount of imported timber products of varying quality flooding the Australian marketplace, including from China,” she said.

Hallam said the new estimates also reaffirmed the importance of aligning the government’s policy with Australia’s Timber Fibre Strategy, which outlines opportunities for the industry to make a greater contribution to national goals in carbon, innovation, and housing construction.

Softwood up, hardwood down, native at historic lows

The value of softwood plantation production is forecast to increase slightly in 2026-27, driven by short-term movements in detached housing demand. But ABARES warns that a gradual shift toward higher-density dwellings is expected to temper timber demand over the medium term, whilst projected increases in softwood log availability will ease unit prices.

Hardwood plantation production, however, is heading the other way.

And that’s because ongoing shifts in global paper markets are placing downward pressure on woodchip demand, whilst Vietnam’s growing share of global trade — combined with projected exchange rate changes — is continuing to erode Australia’s competitiveness overseas. ABARES expects Australian hardwood woodchip exports to settle at similar volumes but lower unit prices, with Australia holding a smaller, more specialised role in the market.

And then there is native forestry, where production has now fallen to historically low levels following 20 years of contraction driven by the transfer of multiple-use public native forests to nature conservation reserves and increased harvest restrictions.

A $570 million downward revision

ABARES has slashed its forestry forecast by more than $570 million — a 21 per cent revision from its December report — with exports the major driver of the writedown, down more than $619 million amid weaker production and prices.

It comes days after this masthead reported on a new white paper from the Rozetta Institute arguing that Australia needs a national roadmap to boost forest productivity and encourage new capital into the market.

On Friday, Wood Central spoke to the white paper’s lead author, Steve Walker, Principal of Terrafolia Advisory, and co-author Dr Lyndall Bull, who revealed that Australian plantations produce just 15 to 18 cubic metres per hectare per year against international benchmarks of 30 to 50.

And on Monday, Walker went further, telling Wood Central the sector’s decades-long focus on cost discipline had come at the expense of genuine value creation. “Lifting productivity on the land already planted is the fastest and most scalable opportunity,” Walker said. “International benchmarks in Brazil, India, Vietnam and China demonstrate that 30 to 50 cubic metres per hectare per year is achievable using proven technologies already available.”

“If we can do this, we can ultimately strengthen our capacity to produce more competitive engineered wood products like LVL and other EWPs,” he said, adding that the downstream benefits could add tens of millions of dollars to regional communities.

• For more information, including the ABARES full March 2026 Agricultural Commodities Report, visit the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

Now, Australian Sustainable Hardwoods (ASH) — the country’s largest hardwood processor — says a $600,000 AFWI-funded research project is helping the industry find its way forward, with new species, new engineered products and new performance data that could change how timber windows are specified in Australia.

Daniel Wright, ASH’s National Business Development Manager, told Wood Central that window manufacturers are a big part of the company’s supply chain — from commodity and painted windows through to high-end architectural manufacturers — mostly across south-eastern states, but with a growing presence in northern New South Wales.

And Wright said the fallout from the decision to cease harvesting in Victorian forests has been immediate. “The window manufacturers of south-east Australia have been forced into a lot of change with the cessation of native timber in Victoria — just like we have,” he said. “But they also have upcoming changes to the NCC, which will structurally change how many of them operate.”

“Of course, what impacts our supply chain also impacts us.”

That disruption created confusion. “We’ve recently seen imported plantation timbers in the window market that don’t meet the specs they are intended for,” Wright said. “This was a direct result of Victoria’s hardwood being suddenly ceased. The window makers were trying to do the right thing, but were forced to make quick decisions.”

As one of the major stakeholders in the AFWI–AGWA Modernising Timber Windows project, led jointly by the Timber Development Association and the Australian Glass and Window Association, Australian Sustainable Hardwoods is providing timber species for testing their performance in modern systems.

“When we were asked to be involved, we saw this project as an opportunity to work together and help the window makers collectively find pathways forward that not only suit their specific needs, but also comply with upcoming changes to the NCC,” Wright said.

The project is also a chance for ASH to advance one of its newer species — Plantation Oak — as the company rebuilds markets lost when Victorian ash was taken away. Made from Shining Gum logs grown in a plantation for pulp, Plantation Oak is upgraded by ASH into higher-end, longer-term applications. Wright said a small part of every log can be used for architectural applications, but the majority needs to be engineered to get the best out of it.

“We’ve had success with Plantation Oak in MASSLAM, but in order to use this fibre in other market segments, we need to help build the standards and examples that everyone can follow with confidence,” he said. ASH is one of 10 timber suppliers involved in the project, alongside the Pentarch Group and others.

Now, the testing programme is about to shift up a gear.

Speaking to Wood Central today, Kylan Low — the Structural Engineer at the Timber Development Association leading the project — said next week’s round will put four configurations through their paces: a double-hung window, an awning and casement window, an awning and double casement window, and a centre bifold door. Low said the configurations are designed to capture various hardware setups used across the industry and will be tested under combined air and water pressure for durations representing storm periods.

In January, Low told Wood Central that the industry had been craving this kind of data for a very long time: “Window data hasn’t kept up with changes in codes, glazing, and timber supply.”

The project has also given a platform to the next generation. Jesse Ross — a Graduate Engineer at AGWA who has been working alongside Low since the project’s inception — recently shared his reflections on what has become his first major engineering project. Ross said that, unlike uPVC and aluminium systems, there was no prime operator in the timber window sector, meaning the entire system had to be built from the ground up.

Early testing revealed that some Australian hardwoods, such as Spotted Gum and Blackbutt, could outperform European staples. But given the project’s focus on species substitution, the team chose to work with the lowest passing species it could find. Designs have settled on 55/58 mm sash profiles with 24 mm glazing pockets, accommodating modern insulated glass units and manufacturable by small-scale workshops.

Ross said the industry engagement phase — travelling to state forums, meeting joiners, hardware suppliers and timber providers — was one of the most eye-opening parts of the experience. He found some joineries still working with outdated designs that didn’t fully comply with AS 2047 or accommodate drained insulated glass units.

“I learned that innovation is not just about creating new ideas,” Ross wrote, “but also about making them accessible to your audience.” The documentation phase — technical manuals, substitution procedures, shop drawings — is now underway, aiming to give any Australian joinery everything it needs to start building with confidence.”

The Modernising Timber Windows project is one of 30 research initiatives funded through AFWI — a $200-million-plus institute backed by $100 million in Commonwealth funding. It is generating new structural and performance data across a range of solid and engineered wood products, testing how timbers perform under AS 2047, Australia’s mandatory standard for windows and external glazed doors.

• To learn more about the Australian Forest and Wood Innovations programme, visit AFWI’s dedicated website.

“Wesbeam has a foundation where capable, committed people are aligned to a clear purpose and take pride in what they deliver. My focus is on strengthening that culture while driving disciplined performance and operational excellence,” Everest said. “Wesbeam’s scale and national reach, combined with its reputation for quality and reliability, position us strongly as engineered timber continues to gain broader acceptance in residential and commercial construction.”

With an eye to the future, Everest said his focus is on disciplined execution and extracting full value from the platform already built. His priorities include operational excellence and productivity, safety leadership and capability development, strategic customer and stakeholder partnerships, sustainable and disciplined growth, and market expansion through innovation.

Asked why Wesbeam, Everest pointed to the company’s reputation for quality, reliability, and national reach — attributes that have cemented its role as a critical supplier to builders, merchants, and frame-and-truss manufacturers across the country. Wesbeam, he said, is a business built on “capable, committed people aligned to a clear purpose,” adding that strengthening that culture while driving disciplined performance will remain central to his leadership.

Wesbeam operates a world‑scale, 24/7 manufacturing facility in Neerabup, Western Australia, supported by a long‑term plantation timber supply agreement with the WA Government. That agreement provides a level of security and consistency that has become increasingly rare in a market grappling with supply‑chain volatility.

Everest also acknowledged the outstanding contribution of outgoing CEO James Malone, who retired after leading Wesbeam through major phases of growth and capability development. “James and the team have built strong foundations,” Everest said. “My focus is on respecting that legacy while helping the organisation continue to evolve, execute and perform.”

Founded in 2001, Wesbeam has grown into a nationally significant manufacturer with distribution hubs across Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. The company employs just under 300 people and has been recognised as a Great Place to Work for three consecutive years, whilst investment in automation, plant upgrades and sustainability initiatives continues to lift productivity as Australia looks to expand housing supply and reduce the construction industry’s carbon footprint.

• To learn more about Wesbeam and its projects, click here for Wood Central’s special feature on Bluerock Project’s Tupy Gardens, a $25 million timber-framed apartment complex where Bluerock picked Wesbeam’s LVL over brick.

The project, which is owned by the Indigenous‑owned Tiwi Plantations Corporation and managed by Midway Pty Ltd, will establish new long‑rotation plantations of native species to generate high‑integrity Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), supplying millions of cubic metres of high‑value timber products that the project partners believe could replace native timbers in furniture, decking and housing.

According to Kim Puruntatameri, Chair of the Tiwi Plantations Corporation, the project is about looking after the land for the next generation: “If we work together as one, we’re going to get there… Tiwi knowledge and our culture are the most important things; we need to pass the knowledge on to our grandkids.”

Puruntatameri has been involved in the project for more than 15 years and has played a key role in shifting the plantations from earlier commercial models established in 1986 — when the Northern Territory ended its involvement with forestry on the Tiwi Islands — through to 2010, when he, along with Gibson Farmer Illortaminni, helped establish the Tiwi Plantations Corporation.

For Heechung Sung, the CEFC’s Head of Natural Capital, the new investment demonstrates how Indigenous‑led forestry can play a critical role in Australia’s low‑carbon transition. “We are incredibly proud to support and empower the Tiwi Islands communities to achieve greater economic equity in the energy transition,” she said.

Wood Central understands the project will cover more than 30,000 hectares of Eucalyptus pellita (or Red mahogany), a species native to northeastern Queensland, and is expected to generate more than five million ACCUs — a substantial sum given ACCUs are currently valued at $35 and $40 per unit.

“This is very exciting that we have been able to introduce the CEFC and River Capital into the project,” according to Tony McKenna, Midway’s CEO, who spoke to the ABC NT Country Hour this afternoon, adding that the carbon markets have changed the economics of planting trees. “You get carbon revenue up‑front, which helps the economics before you get income from harvesting and selling products.”

McKenna said the Australian Carbon Model proposed by Professor Andrew McIntosh reinforced the importance of plantation forestry: “When you plant a tree, you can see exactly where that carbon is sequestered. It’s in the wood product, and then it goes on and stays in that wood product throughout its life.”

And on the decision to plant Eucalyptus pellita: “There have been trials on the island for 20 years… it produces a straight stem which is very good for the wood products, the growth rate and survival rates have dealt well with cyclones.”

Wood Central understands the scale of the development could lift Australia’s total plantation estate by two per cent, and help meet growing local and international demand for high‑quality timber. The first two stages have already been registered with the Clean Energy Regulator, generating an estimated 865,000 ACCUs, and McKenna has also confirmed that the first seedlings have now been established.

All going to plan, the new project is expected to produce 12 million cubic metres of high‑value wood products, supporting long‑term carbon storage by using sustainable timber in construction and reducing pressure on native forests and adds to a growing CEFC portfolio of natural‑capital investments, including major commitments to agriculture, carbon platforms and plantation expansion.

The report, released last month, updates ABARES’ 2011 estimates of Mean Annual Increment (MAI), a common measure of the amount of wood a plantation produces each year. While MAI is only a partial indicator of productivity, ABARES says it has become increasingly important as the sector faces growing climate and economic pressures. “Productivity growth is essential to offset the impact of climate change and drive the competitiveness of the sector,” the report states.

To update its figures, ABARES consulted plantation growers and key supply chain representatives. Those discussions, the bureau says, revealed “a dynamic industry, with a focus on harnessing technological improvements to at least maintain or improve plantation growth rates and wood quality.”

Softwood plantations have generally outperformed hardwood plantations.

ABARES found that Ssoftwoods have either held steady or improved, particularly in South Eastern Australia — including the Green Triangle, Tasmania, Central Gippsland and Central Victoria — where Pinus radiata dominates. ABARES reports that “softwood plantation MAIs have remained steady or shown moderate increases over the past 15 years,” highlighting P. radiata’s role as “the largest plantation footprint” and a key supplier to the housing and construction sector.

The latest data also shows the top end of softwood performance has lifted. In 2011, only two regions recorded an MAI of 21 cubic metres per hectare per year. In the 2024 update, four regions now exceed that level, with the Green Triangle reaching 24 cubic metres — the highest in the country. ABARES says the lower end of the range has also edged higher, pointing to uneven but genuine productivity gains.

The strongest softwood regions — the Green Triangle, Tasmania and Central Gippsland — now sit around 23 to 24 cubic metres per hectare per year and have improved by up to 20 per cent over the past decade and a half. Other regions, including the Central, Southern and Northern Tablelands, have seen only modest increases. ABARES attributes the differences to climate, soil, water availability and access to improved genetics and silviculture.

In addition, Queensland’s Southern Pine plantations show similar variation, with North Queensland recording growth rates about 30 per cent higher than South East Queensland. Hoop Pine and Pinus pinaster remain important in some areas, although P. pinaster continues to yield less than P. radiata and its plantation area has declined.

Hardwood plantations, however, tell a more mixed story.

ABARES says “trends in hardwood plantation MAIs are mixed,” reflecting the estate’s smaller size, younger age and the split between pulplog and sawlog regimes. Many early estimates were based on expected rather than harvested yields, making comparisons difficult. Where data is available, hardwood MAIs range from 8 to 21 cubic metres per hectare per year, with pulplog plantations generally growing faster due to shorter growing cycles.

Western Australia, the Green Triangle and Tasmania provide the clearest hardwood data. Western Australia shows a slight decline in Eucalyptus globulus growth rates, likely due to drying conditions. The Green Triangle has recorded a small increase, while Tasmania’s E. nitens plantations have seen a more significant lift.

Growers told ABARES they believe hardwood productivity has improved overall, though consistent long‑term data is limited due to changes in ownership and the rapid expansion of plantations in the early 2000s. Across both softwood and hardwood estates, growers pointed to improved silviculture, better genetic stock, advances in harvesting and processing, and ongoing research as key drivers of growth. Climate remains the biggest constraint, with growers emphasising the need for proactive adaptation.

Last week, Wood Central revealed that Australia’s five remaining regional forestry agreements (RFAs) – three in New South Wales and one each in Western Australia and Tasmania will be brought under the wing of the new Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act from July 2027. The five Victorian RFAs were terminated on 31 December 2024, following the Victorian Government’s decision to cease native forestry in that state, whilst the Queensland government never signed the RFA agreement.

On Monday, Murray Watt – the Minister for Environment and Water – who did the deal with the Greens to pass his complex set of seven EPBC reform Acts late last week, and Julie Collins – Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, stressed that the new EPBC reforms will not lead to the death of native forestry in Australia.

Speaking about the RFAs, Lowe said the current system – which stood the test of a High Court judgement, after being challenged by environmental groups – has got strong processes around managing and avoiding unacceptable impacts on threatened species: “We think the RFA system and RFA states are coming to this from a position of strength given the robust arrangements that are already in place,” he said.

And whilst there is some work to be done to define those national environmental standards, Lowe suggested a gap analysis approach was ahead “I think that, for us, the important thing is to support RFA states with a transition to that accreditation by basically going: ‘Okay, here’s what the RFA achieves. Here’s what those national environmental standards are asking for, and here’s what we need to do to address what those national environmental standards are asking for.'”

On Friday, Wood Central revealed that Michael O’Connor – the National Secretary of the powerful Timber, Furnishings and Textiles Union and current member of the Responsible Wood board, which manages the Australian Forestry Standard said the union “fully expects the industry’s environmental management system to stack up when assessed against the new standards.”

“Our union expects the sector to do well if the new standards are sensible and applied in a reasonable, evidence-based way — which we’ll be pushing for,” O’Connor said. Under the reforms, environmental assessments of forestry operations — currently managed through the Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) framework, which complies with the current EPBC Act requirements under that well-established Federal-State arrangement — will shift to an alternative accreditation pathway aligned with the yet-to-be-finalised National Environmental Standards.

According to O’Connor, “our call is simple. The finalisation of the standards — and the assessment of operations against them — must ensure ongoing active and sustainable forest management, support sustainable development in timber communities, and deliver a stronger future for the workers who manage these forests and those whose livelihoods they sustain.”

Please note: The exchange between Senator Colbeck and Departmental Officers is significant for the Australian native forestry industry.  The full transcript will be run next week in a series of articles picking up further material from the Department of Climate and material that is contrary to what Officers of the Department of Agriculture and Forestry are saying.

The decision by Ross Cadell, NSW Nationals Senator, to go after Michael O’Connor and the Timber, Furnishing and Textiles Union (TFTU) over Anthony Albanese and Murray Watt’s ‘dirty EPBC deal’ with the Greens is puzzling to say the least.

“Last time I checked, the union existed for its members, not to run a protection racket for the dirty deal done between Labor and The Greens,” Senator Cadell, the Shadow Minister for Fisheries and Forestry, Water, and Emergency Management, said in Canberra today. “The claim that we’re ‘mimicking Green talking points’ is complete hypocrisy from the TFTU, who have been non-existent in the lead up to last week’s vote.”

Whether it’s petty politics or poor policy, Cadell, the Nationals (and, by extension, the Coalition) have missed the trick (again) – and now risk being left without a musical chair for the second time in weeks. Instead of slagging off the unions – now the industry’s best hope at salvaging timber jobs – it should be locking its crosshairs squarely at the Greens.

Last week, Wood Central reported that Michael O’Connor, the National Secretary of the TFTU – Australia’s only timber union – warned that the media, the Coalition, and (select) members should be careful with how they frame EPBC reforms and the future of the industry: “The Greens are way off the mark by claiming this is the death of native forestry,” O’Connor said, cautioning that “some Liberal and National Party MPs and industry bodies should be cautious about mimicking Green talking points.”

“I’m not sure what they are thinking,” an ex-liberal staffer told Jack Rodden Green today. “It’s clear they are not thinking along policy lines or constructively; they are lashing out. They’d do well to recall what John Howard (the Liberals’ second-longest serving leader) did in opposition, who worked constructively with the Hawke government to find national solutions.

I have written extensively about the challenge for forestry (and for all land-based activities impacted by this reform) is to establish a new bilateral process – similar to an RFA – between the states and the federal government, which in many ways is an equivalent to an RFA.

As for Senator Cadell, who today warned that the festive season always brings out the turkey…it also shows who is the goose too.

This week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese painted the Federal Coalition as inept and childish, whilst Environment Minister Murray Watt described negotiations over the long-awaited EPBC Reform Bill as “shambolic.” That was the line the mainstream media ran with.

But in Parliament, the Prime Minister said something else—something that cut against the prevailing narrative. He thanked Liberal Senator Jonno Duniam, the former Agriculture and Forestry Minister under the Coalition government, for his “good faith negotiations.”

That acknowledgement matters.

Last week, Wood Central carried two major pieces on the reform story.

Michelle Grattan’s analysis was scathing of the Coalition, under the headline “When the Music Stopped, the Greens Outplayed the Coalition.” Meanwhile, a joint article by academics Justine Bell-James (UQ), Euan Ritchie (Deakin), Phillipa McCormack (Adelaide), and Yung En Chee (Melbourne) ran under the banner “Environmental Reform Has Finally Landed: But Can it Protect Nature?”

Buried in their assessment was a surprising concession: “Wins for Liberals.”

Among those wins was Senator Duniam’s push to reshape the definition of “unacceptable impacts” on critically endangered species.

The final Bill pares this back to projects that “seriously impair viability.” In practice, developments cannot be rejected simply because they might impair viability—they must do so in a way that is severe in nature and extent.

This shift, subtle in wording but significant in effect, strengthens certainty for business and industries such as forestry. It also reflects Duniam’s ability to secure outcomes in a hostile negotiating environment.

The Bill passed on 28 November 2025, though the final text is not yet available on the Parliamentary website.

A Senator Who Does the Heavy Lifting

Jonno Duniam is no stranger to environmental portfolios. He served as Shadow Minister for the Environment in the last Parliament, and before that as Assistant Minister for the Environment in the Coalition Government. At the time, insiders noted that Duniam often shouldered the work that then-Minister David Littleproud found “too difficult or challenging.”

Before entering federal politics, Duniam was Chief of Staff to the Tasmanian Premier. Having spoken to a colleague who spent a short time with the Senator in a Hobart whiskey bar down the lane from the Tasmanian ALP Office (although noting he didn’t actually drink), he can attest to his focus and conviction.

Duniam is a champion for the Tasmanian timber industry and is very clear about what drives him. It is evident he is a rising star in the Federal Coalition—literally a standout in the current party room.

Why Albanese’s Praise Matters

Anthony Albanese is not known for offering easy compliments to his opponents. His reputation is that of a hard fighter, often uncompromising in the cut and thrust of parliamentary debate. For him to go on record acknowledging Duniam’s “good faith” is no small gesture.

It signals that even in a week where the Coalition was cast as chaotic, one senator managed to cut through—delivering tangible outcomes and earning respect across the aisle.

In the end, when the dust settled on the EPBC reforms, the Prime Minister’s words spoke louder than the headlines. The truth sometimes shines through the theatre. This week, it shone on Jonno Duniam.

O’Connor, who also serves on the board of Responsible Wood – Australia’s largest forest certification scheme, said the Greens, opposition MPs and some industry associations are “way off the mark” in claiming that new environmental laws will spell the end for native forestry.

“The Greens are way off the mark by claiming this is the death of native forestry,” he said, adding that the union fully expects the industry’s environmental management system to stack up when assessed against the new standards.

He cautioned that “some Liberal and National Party MPs and industry bodies should be cautious about mimicking Green talking points,” and stressed that “our union expects the sector to do well if the new standards are sensible and applied in a reasonable, evidence-based way — which we’ll be pushing for.”

Under the reforms, environmental assessments of forestry operations — currently managed through the Regional Forest Agreement (RFA) framework — will shift to an alternative accreditation pathway aligned with the yet-to-be-finalised National Environmental Standards.

“Our call is simple,” O’Connor said. “The finalisation of the standards — and the assessment of operations against them — must ensure ongoing active and sustainable forest management, support sustainable development in timber communities, and deliver a stronger future for the workers who manage these forests and those whose livelihoods they sustain.”

The union believes any structural impacts from the new standards are unlikely to exceed existing supply pressures, including reductions linked to the Great Koala National Park in New South Wales and the long-forecast 50 per cent decline in native forest sawlog volumes from Sustainable Timber Tasmania from 2027.

At the same time, O’Connor welcomed the establishment of the Forestry Industry Growth Fund, which will provide concessional finance for retooling, workforce training, safety upgrades and productivity improvements. He also praised the recognition of forestry, timber and wood products manufacturing as a Priority Industry under the Future Made in Australia National Interest Framework — alongside hydrogen, critical minerals and green metals.

“These are practical steps the Australian Government is taking to address policy settings and market disruptions affecting supply and profitability,” he said. “Our union will continue working with the Australian and State Governments, and good, willing and capable employers, to overcome challenges and seize opportunities so that existing timber jobs are protected — and new, well-paid and secure jobs are created.”

It comes after Wood Central revealed that forestry was included in an eleventh-hour deal between Labor and the Greens, allowing a 26-year update to the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act to pass Federal Parliament days before the summer recess. Under the deal, Australia’s 10 RFAs — covering Eden, Upper and Lower East NSW; five regions in Victoria; all of Tasmania; and WA’s southwest — along with agricultural land clearing, will be brought under the EPBC Act from July 2027.

Jack Rodden-Green, a legal expert on these matters, warned that the bill could have far-reaching consequences. “This bill could have enormous implications for not only public native forestry, but potentially all types of land-based activities,” he said. “RFAs cover all types of forests — including native and plantation forests. It is essentially a bilateral agreement whereby the Montreal process, modified by the RFA Act and EPBC, applies to state land.”