And the report findings are clear: the global demand for Portland Cement, starting from 2030, will experience a rapid and continuous decline – with shrinking demand for mega projects, coupled with the increasing cost from carbon pricing and regulations making Portland Cement uncompetitive: “If it were three times as expensive or limestone weren’t ubiquitous, we would be using existing alternatives, which are usually lighter and leaner for the same structural virtues,” Mr Barnard said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “You’ll note that it’s starting to decline in this projection, slightly by 2030 and more steeply in coming years,” he said, due to several reasons: “First is that cement demand fell in the West from 1990 to 2020 as those affluent regions had already built most of their infrastructure and urban areas by that time,” with “the vast majority of the growth was in China, as with everything else.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n In April<\/a>, Wood Central reported that 25% of China’s cost is now sinking under the weight of its concrete, steel and glazing mega projects<\/em> – “China did in 40 years what took the West 80 to 150 years, and is now reaching the end game of building cities and infrastructure,” according to Mr Barnard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “India<\/a>, Brazil, Indonesia, and Africa don’t have the conditions that will lead to the mad dash of the (steel-and-concrete) building that China experienced,” he said, adding that “their demand growth will be slower and spread over the next 150 years.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Last year, Wood Central reported that the UN’s new Construction Blueprint<\/a> was pushing to replace carbon-intensive building materials, like steel and concrete, with bio-based materials like timber, bamboo, and biomass, saving emissions up to 40% by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Already, researchers in the United States<\/a>, Canada<\/a>, and Australia <\/a>are projecting massive increases in mass timber consumption, with global governments incentivising timber and timber-steel hybrid systems as they pivot to meet net-zero targets.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n “With the rise in the cost of cement and the demand reduction, the alternatives spring into action,” Mr Barnard said, “in my assessment, the largest of these is likely to be engineered timber,” adding that “structural strength is equal to reinforced concrete with a fifth the mass. Every ton of engineered timber displaces 4.8 tons of reinforced concrete, hence the roughly 0.5 tons of cement required for the concrete.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"Cement](\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Cement-Decarbonization-Through-2100-5-1024x595.webp\")
Mass Timber is the big winner in the wake of Cement Displacement.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n