{"id":19173,"date":"2024-10-31T12:25:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T02:25:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/?p=19173"},"modified":"2024-10-31T12:41:11","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T02:41:11","slug":"forget-the-red-sea-trumps-tariff-plan-could-fuel-timber-trade-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/forget-the-red-sea-trumps-tariff-plan-could-fuel-timber-trade-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Forget the Red Sea: Trump&#8217;s Tariff Plan Could Fuel Timber Trade War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Twelve months after the Red Sea crisis &#8211; which has seen global shipping divert billions of freight containers around the Cape of Good Hope, Donald Trump&#8217;s quest to <em>Make America Great Again<\/em> is set to be the biggest shake-up to global timber for several decades. Wood Central understands that Trump&#8217;s new policy, a throwback to the 1880s and 1890s, could potentially kick off a trade war of unprecedented scale, with the $520 billion trade in forest products caught <a href=\"https:\/\/unece.org\/forests\/forest-products-trade-flow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">in the crosshairs.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking to the Joe Rogan Experience podcast on Friday &#8211; which has been downloaded 42 million times on YouTube, the former president, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sbs.com.au\/news\/article\/trump-jumps-in-a-garbage-truck-and-takes-aim-at-bidens-controversial-comment\/650dmnzqg\">now ahead in the polls after current President Biden labelled Trump supporters &#8216;garbage<\/a>, has doubled down on his pledge to impose a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/blog\/donald-trump-10-percent-tariff\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">universal baseline<\/a> 10%\u00a0tariff on all US imports and a <a href=\"https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/blog\/trump-china-trade-war-proposal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">60% <\/a>tariff on all US imports from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-1024x681.jpg\" alt=\"In less than three weeks. Americans will decide if former President Donald Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris will become the next president of the United States. (Photo Credit: Peter Kov\u00e1\u010d \/ Alamy Stock Photo)\" class=\"wp-image-21344\" srcset=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-1024x681.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-768x511.jpg 768w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-1536x1022.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-2048x1363.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-696x463.jpg 696w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-1068x711.jpg 1068w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-1920x1277.jpg 1920w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-631x420.jpg 631w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-1320x878.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/2XYMGD8-600x399.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">In less than a week. Americans will decide if former President Donald Trump or current Vice President Kamala Harris will become the next president of the United States. (Photo Credit: Peter Kov\u00e1\u010d \/ Alamy Stock Photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While discussing tariffs, Trump was asked by Rogan, \u201cDid you just float out the idea of getting rid of income taxes and replacing them with tariffs?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rogan asked,\u00a0\u201cWere\u00a0you serious about that?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cYeah, sure. Why not?\u201d the former president responded.\u00a0\u201cBecause,\u00a0we, really, our country was the richest in the world, relatively, in the 1880s and 1890s. A president named McKinley, who was assassinated, was the tariff king. He spoke beautifully of tariffs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cAnd then around in the early 1900s, they switched over stupidly to frankly an income tax. And you know why? Because countries were putting a lot of pressure on America:\u00a0\u2018We\u00a0don\u2019t want to pay tariffs, please don\u2019t.\u2019 You know they, believe me, they control our politicians.&#8221;<\/p>\n<cite>Former President Trump on his plans to introduce a blanket tariff on 10% of all imports into the United States &#8211; and 60% on goods imported from China.<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Joe Rogan Experience #2219 - Donald Trump\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/hBMoPUAeLnY?start=2450&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>According to President Trump (from 40.53), &#8220;tariffs&#8221; is the most beautiful word in the US economic dictionary. Footage courtesy of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@joerogan\">@joerogan.<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As it stands, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fs.usda.gov\/nrs\/pubs\/gtr\/gtr-nrs-p-197papers\/04-espinoza-gtr_nrs-p-197.pdf#:~:text=The%20country%20is%20the%20top%20producer%20and%20consumer,has%20the%20highest%20per%20capita%20industrial%20wood%20consumption.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the US is the world&#8217;s largest producer of forest products, has the highest per capita consumption of industrial wood<\/a>, and is the second-largest consumer market (behind China) for lumber, engineered wood products, paper, and wood energy. In addition,<a href=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/new-vow-north-america-ramps-up-war-on-illegal-logging\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> it has the largest stake in the USMCA &#8211; the world&#8217;s largest free trade zone<\/a>, which includes Canada (the world&#8217;s fourth-largest lumber and pulp producer) and Mexico (one of the world&#8217;s fastest-growing lumber consumption markets.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/taxfoundation.org\/blog\/trump-tax-plan-tariffs-analysis\/\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">According to the Tax Foundation<\/a>, America&#8217;s top think tank on economic policy, if implemented and met with retaliation from trading partners, the tariffs &#8220;would more than offset the entire benefit of the major tax cuts for economic output and jobs, resulting in a net loss for the US economy.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"America is now flooded with an oversupply of lumber, with the failure of Fed Reserve rate cuts leading to a stop-start housing economy. (Photo Credit: Maksym Yemelyanov \/ Alamy Stock Photo)\" class=\"wp-image-18652\" srcset=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-1024x768.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-300x225.jpg 300w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-768x576.jpg 768w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-1536x1152.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-2048x1536.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-696x522.jpg 696w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-1068x801.jpg 1068w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-1920x1440.jpg 1920w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-560x420.jpg 560w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-80x60.jpg 80w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-265x198.jpg 265w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-1320x990.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/PHH39N-1-600x450.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">America is now flooded with an oversupply of lumber, with the world&#8217;s largest economy now the largest consumer of roundwood, sawn wood, wood-panel and mass timber imports. (Photo Credit: Maksym Yemelyanov \/ Alamy Stock Photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The new policy comes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/17\/us\/politics\/trump-tax-cuts-increased-tariffs.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">after the New York Times reported that former President Trump told House Republicans<\/a> that he would &#8220;love to raise tariffs&#8221; and cut income taxes on Americans, potentially to zero. &#8220;Everyone was clapping in the room,&#8221; said Georgia Republican representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. &#8220;He said, &#8216;If you guys are going to go vote on something today, vote to lower taxes on Americans.'&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In July, Wood Central revealed that President Trump believes that mixing tariffs with tax cuts can revitalise American businesses and manufacturing, boost jobs, and benefit working-class Americans. They see tariffs on foreign products as a lucrative source of revenue, one that could offset a drop in tax receipts\u2014with the cost borne by the foreign manufacturers and importers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"youtube-embed\" data-video_id=\"DhWE1mRPIqU\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Most INSANE Trump Rogan Clip That NO ONE Noticed\" width=\"696\" height=\"392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/DhWE1mRPIqU?feature=oembed&#038;enablejsapi=1\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Global economists have slammed the policy, warning that a trade war will harm all economies. Footage courtesy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@breakingpoints\">@breakingpoints.<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Robert Lighthizer, President Trump&#8217;s chief trade negotiator during his presidency, who continues to advise the campaign on trade, said the tariff hike hit the supply chain instead of the consumer hip pocket. Mr Lighthizer said studies showed that tariffs paid by American consumers were &#8220;fundamentally wrong,&#8221; maintaining that foreign producers and importers very often pay tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\"><blockquote><p>&#8220;A tax-and-tariff regime can be progressive,&#8221; he said. &#8220;What it will do is change the relationship between importers and American manufacturers,&#8221; Mr Lightnizer affirms, &#8220;it will create jobs.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trump&#8217;s tariffs and the flow through to global forest products<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>As it stands, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/search?q=how+much+timber+trade+occurs+between+the+united+states+and+china&amp;cvid=50903ea02673449384b0bddc7a7b7c64&amp;gs_lcrp=EgRlZGdlKgYIABBFGDkyBggAEEUYOdIBCTEwMTc0ajBqOagCCLACAQ&amp;FORM=ANAB01&amp;PC=ASTS\">more than US $10 billion worth of timber is traded between the United States and China annually<\/a> &#8211; with the volume of trade rocking from US $7 billion a year over the past decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;The Chinese and the US forest markets are closely linked, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S1389934120307012\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">according to a Chinese study<\/a> looking at the impact of a trade war on the global supply chain of forest products. &#8220;The main forest products imported by the US from China are plywood, fiberboard, and wooden furniture, accounting for 46.68%, 33.31%, and 50.33% of US total imports.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;On the other hand, China&#8217;s main imports of forest products are industrial roundwood, sawn wood, and waste paper, accounting for 42.93%, 42.27%, and 71.12% of the total US exports of these products,&#8221; they said, adding that &#8220;these imported products also amounted for 10.25%, 18.09%, and 46.01% of the total Chinese imports.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at two scenarios in which the US and China impose a 25% and 30% tariff on goods between the countries, &#8220;we found that China&#8217;s imports of sawn wood and waste paper from the US and the US imports of plywood and other paper from China decreased significantly.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Meanwhile, some trade flows between China and the US shifted to other parts of the world,&#8221; it said, arguing that Vietnam and New Zealand were the biggest winners, &#8220;whilst Thailand suffered heavy losses.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Product substitution occurred mainly in Asia and Europe, where price changes were within 10%,&#8221; it said, arguing that &#8220;China benefited slightly, but the US experienced a major loss from a potential trade war.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Days before the election, Trump is the favourite to take back the White House.<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<p>Less than one week before the election, Trump has taken a key lead in four of seven battleground states &#8211; with Vice President Kamala Harris struggling to hold her lead in Michigan and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"894\" height=\"613\" src=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_.jpeg\" alt=\"Screenshot 31 10 2024 115132 www.bbc .com\" class=\"wp-image-21737\" srcset=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_.jpeg 894w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_-300x206.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_-768x527.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_-218x150.jpeg 218w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_-696x477.jpeg 696w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_-613x420.jpeg 613w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_-100x70.jpeg 100w, https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/Screenshot_31-10-2024_115132_www.bbc_.com_-600x411.jpeg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 894px) 100vw, 894px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>According to election aggregator Five-Thirty-Eight, <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2024-election-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Trump now leads Harris 51\/49 <\/a>across all major polling, whilst Polymaker, an online betting platform backed by Peter Thiel, a high profile Trump supporter, now has Trump favoured to prevail in Arizona (68%), Georgia (64%), Pennsylvania (54%), Michigan (52%), North Carolina (63%), and Wisconsin (52%). The only swing state where Harris maintains a slim lead is Nevada, where she holds a 51% chance of victory compared to Trump\u2019s 49%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>To learn more about Trump&#8217;s plans for old-growth forests, <a href=\"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/would-trump-scrap-plans-to-end-old-growth-logging-next-year\/\">click here for Wood Central&#8217;s special feature.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Twelve months after the Red Sea crisis &#8211; which has seen global shipping divert billions of freight containers around the Cape of Good Hope, Donald Trump&#8217;s quest to Make America Great Again is set to be the biggest shake-up to global timber for several decades. Wood Central understands that Trump&#8217;s new policy, a throwback to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19174,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[51,52,50,37,33,53,41,32,46,42,39,114,43,31,40],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[70],"class_list":{"0":"post-19173","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-americas","8":"category-asia","9":"category-australia","10":"category-building-and-construction","11":"category-editors-picks","12":"category-europe","13":"category-exterior-wood-products","14":"category-global-news","15":"category-industry","16":"category-interior-wood-products","17":"category-mass-timber","18":"category-new-zealand","19":"category-structural-wood-products","20":"category-top-stories","21":"category-wood-products"},"authors":[{"term_id":70,"user_id":2,"is_guest":0,"slug":"jason","display_name":"Jason Ross","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":"","8":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19173"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19173\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21741,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19173\/revisions\/21741"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19173"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=19173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}