{"id":29604,"date":"2025-10-27T13:55:42","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T03:55:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/?p=29604"},"modified":"2026-01-20T10:47:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T00:47:07","slug":"europes-softwood-comeback-hinges-on-2026-housing-boom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/europes-softwood-comeback-hinges-on-2026-housing-boom\/","title":{"rendered":"Europe’s Softwood Comeback Hinges on 2026 Housing Boom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Europe\u2019s softwood industry, battered by years of falling production, rising raw\u2011material costs, and sluggish demand, is staking its recovery hopes on a long-awaited rebound in construction activity next year, industry leaders told the 73rd International Softwood Conference last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRaw material prices have increased across Europe, denting profitability in the industry,\u201d Tommi Sneck, president of the European Organisation of the Sawmill Industry, told delegates. \u201cThere are significant differences across Europe in terms of profitability. When demand resumes, there is a risk of log prices being too elevated.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conference, held October 22\u201323, was hosted by Norway\u2019s Treindustrien, the European Timber Trade Federation, and EOS<\/a>, and drew hundreds of producers, traders, and analysts from across the world. Speakers described an industry that has trimmed output by about 10 per cent since a 2021 peak and now faces a complex mix of cyclical and structural pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Apr
Delegates at the International Softwood Conference in Oslo, \u201cEurope, the United States and China have underbuilt for about 20 years,\u201d Morten Bergsten said, signalling hopes that \u201c2026 could be the year of recovery in the construction markets.\u201d (Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Johan Freij opened the conference with a blunt assessment. He warned of \u201cexceptional uncertainty\u201d and long-running structural inflation, urging the sector to press its advantage on climate credentials. \u201cWe should be bolder in communicating the benefits of using wood to tackle climate change \u2014 not only in terms of storage but also as a substitute for more carbon-intensive materials,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The case for recovery rests in part on a decades\u2011long gap between housing stock and demand: \u201cEurope, the United States and China have underbuilt for about 20 years,\u201d Morten Bergsten, vice\u2011president of the ETTF and chair of its softwood committee, told the conference. \u201cWith inflation coming down, 2026 could be the year of recovery in the construction markets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet several caveats shadow any rebound. <\/h6>\n\n\n\n

Delegates warned that elevated log prices, uneven regional profitability, and growing regulatory burdens could blunt the upside. \u201cRegulation and bureaucratic burdens have increased sharply over the last few years,\u201d Mr Bergsten said. \u201cThis should stop or, ideally, reverse, for the sector to thrive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China’s consumption is weak. U.S. mortgage rates continue to pressure demand. Japan’s market is soft. Parts of North Africa and the Middle East show resilience. “China’s softwood lumber consumption is now minimal,” said Olle Berg of Setra Group, citing the construction slowdown and Russia’s growing price influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whilst on Atlantic trade routes, Paul Jannke of Forest Economic Advisors said U.S. housing fundamentals point to pent\u2011up demand but are constrained by high financing costs. He added that tariff differentials give European exporters a comparative advantage over some competitors. \u201cThere\u2019s demand, but housing starts remain subdued,\u201d Jannke said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several presentations highlighted longer-term supply concerns. Sami Pastila of AFRY Management presented projections showing that log availability will flatten or decline in many regions. The industry must adapt its raw-material strategies. \u201cWe need to process smaller-diameter roundwood, switch to more pine for construction, and pursue a whole-value-chain effort to make construction more efficient,\u201d Christian Nielsen of the Swedish Food and Forest Industries said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speakers identified market opportunities to offset the downturn: more wood use in Japan’s non-residential buildings, rooftop construction and renovation in European cities, and greater demand for lower-grade pine in MENA. Companies are investing selectively in value-added products and digitalisation to protect margins and diversify revenue. But regulatory uncertainty remains\u2014especially regarding the EUDR, with delegates highlighting a \u201cserious lack of clarity and legal certainty\u201d and urging measures to make the regulation practical and proportionate for operators. \u201c(Still) If construction recovers and policy supports us, we could see real momentum in 2026,\u201d Bergsten said. \u201cWe must prepare now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Europe\u2019s softwood industry, battered by years of falling production, rising raw\u2011material costs, and sluggish demand, is staking its recovery hopes on a long-awaited rebound in construction activity next year, industry leaders told the 73rd International Softwood Conference last week. \u201cRaw material prices have increased across Europe, denting profitability in the industry,\u201d Tommi Sneck, president of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":31884,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"default","_twitter_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type":"default","_pinterest_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type_page":"default","_instagram_share_type":"default","_medium_share_type":"default","_threads_share_type":"default","_google_business_share_type":"default","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[51,52,37,33,53,2,32,46,39,49,68],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[70],"class_list":{"0":"post-29604","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-americas","8":"category-asia","9":"category-building-and-construction","10":"category-editors-picks","11":"category-europe","12":"category-featured","13":"category-global-news","14":"category-industry","15":"category-mass-timber","16":"category-residential","17":"category-sector"},"authors":[{"term_id":70,"user_id":2,"is_guest":0,"slug":"jason","display_name":"Jason Ross","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg","url2x":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/J-Ross-headshot.jpeg"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":"","8":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29604"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29604\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31885,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29604\/revisions\/31885"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31884"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29604"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/woodcentral.com.au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=29604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}